Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<ul>
<li>The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?</li>
<li>It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.</li>
<li>I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.</li>
</ul>









The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?
It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.
I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.


Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.</li><li>Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.</li><li>Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.</li></ul>

It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Cisco Systems, Incorporated reported record financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating solid growth amid a dynamic market environment shaped by increasing AI adoption.</li><li>Total revenue reached $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year, surpassing the high end of guidance.</li><li>Product revenue, the main growth driver, increased 17%, led by strong demand for AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions.</li></ul>

Cisco Systems, Incorporated reported record financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating solid growth amid a dynamic market environment shaped by increasing AI adoption.Total revenue reached $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year, surpassing the high end of guidance.Product revenue, the main growth driver, increased 17%, led by strong demand for AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions.

Cisco Systems’ 35% Product Order Growth Signals A Broader Networking Rebound; What Lies Ahead?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Cisco delivered a record Q3 FY2026 with revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% YoY and exceeding the high end of its guidance.</li>
<li>Total product orders rose 35% YoY. Networking product orders grew &gt;50% YoY. Cisco raised its FY26 AI infrastructure orders guide to $9 billion, up from $5 billion, an 80% increase </li>
<li>Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really accelerated - the Acacia business is on fire"</li>
</ul>


Cisco delivered a record Q3 FY2026 with revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% YoY and exceeding the high end of its guidance.
Total product orders rose 35% YoY. Networking product orders grew &gt;50% YoY. Cisco raised its FY26 AI infrastructure orders guide to $9 billion, up from $5 billion, an 80% increase 
Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really accelerated - the Acacia business is on fire"


Cisco Q3 FY2026. The Acacia Business On Fire. So Is The Share Price.

<ul>
<li>Record revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year over year; GAAP EPS of $0.85, up 37% year over year; and non-GAAP EPS of $1.06, up 10% year over year</li>
<li>Significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers $5.3 billion of orders taken year to date; raising expected FY26 orders to $9 billion, up from $5 billion</li>
<li>Q4 FY 2026 Guidance: Revenue: $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion. Earnings per Share: GAAP: $0.80 to $0.85; Non-GAAP: $1.16 to $1.18</li>
</ul>


Record revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year over year; GAAP EPS of $0.85, up 37% year over year; and non-GAAP EPS of $1.06, up 10% year over year
Significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers $5.3 billion of orders taken year to date; raising expected FY26 orders to $9 billion, up from $5 billion
Q4 FY 2026 Guidance: Revenue: $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion. Earnings per Share: GAAP: $0.80 to $0.85; Non-GAAP: $1.16 to $1.18


United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)

It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings...

Fabricated Knowledge

Cisco Systems’ 35% Product Order Growth Signals A Broader Networking Rebound; What Lies Ahead?

Cisco Systems, Incorporated reported record financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating solid growth amid a dynamic...

Baptista Research

CISCO Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

CISCO reported significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers. $5.3 billion of orders taken YTD; raising...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)

It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings...

Fabricated Knowledge

Cisco Systems’ 35% Product Order Growth Signals A Broader Networking Rebound; What Lies Ahead?

Cisco Systems, Incorporated reported record financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating solid growth amid a dynamic...

Baptista Research

Cisco Q3 FY2026. The Acacia Business On Fire. So Is The Share Price.

Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really...

William Keating

CISCO Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

CISCO reported significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers. $5.3 billion of orders taken YTD; raising...

William Keating