Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.</li>
<li>Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.</li>
<li>Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.</li>
</ul>


2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.


AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 -- Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn't Matter as Much Anymore</li>
<li>DeepSeek Market Fears -- A Problem for HBM &amp; Enterprise SSD Memory?</li>
<li>AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie -- Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don't Think So</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 -- Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn't Matter as Much Anymore
DeepSeek Market Fears -- A Problem for HBM &amp; Enterprise SSD Memory?
AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie -- Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don't Think So


Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.</li>
<li>Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  </li>
<li>Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).</li>
</ul>


Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  
Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).


Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Rubrik, cybersecurity company and leader in the segment of enterprise backup and recovery software solutions, delivered a high quality beat and raise in 3QFY25.</li>
<li>Stock indicated up 20%+ during regular trading session on heavy volume. Rubrik raised guidance for FY25 total revenue to $861M at the midpoint, implying ~37% growth.</li>
<li>Moreover, the company generated positive FCF, achieved strong growth at scale and surpassed $1B+ in subscription ARR, a big milestone.</li>
</ul>


Rubrik, cybersecurity company and leader in the segment of enterprise backup and recovery software solutions, delivered a high quality beat and raise in 3QFY25.
Stock indicated up 20%+ during regular trading session on heavy volume. Rubrik raised guidance for FY25 total revenue to $861M at the midpoint, implying ~37% growth.
Moreover, the company generated positive FCF, achieved strong growth at scale and surpassed $1B+ in subscription ARR, a big milestone.


Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch closely.</li><li>The company's revenue for the quarter reached $13.8 billion, sitting at the high end of their guidance range, though it marked a 6% decline year-over-year due to the previous year’s elevated backlog shipments.</li><li>The strength across Cisco's lines of business was evident in their recurring revenue streams, which now account for 57% of total revenue.</li></ul>

Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch closely.The company's revenue for the quarter reached $13.8 billion, sitting at the high end of their guidance range, though it marked a 6% decline year-over-year due to the previous year’s elevated backlog shipments.The strength across Cisco's lines of business was evident in their recurring revenue streams, which now account for 57% of total revenue.

Cisco’s Game-Changing  NVIDIA Partnership & AI Solutions Are A Potential Masterstroke? - Major Drivers

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...

Nicolas Baratte

Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR

Rubrik shares outperformed in 2024 with shares up ~102% vs. IPO offer price of $32/share. In my insight, I set a new PT for Rubrik and discuss...

Andrei Zakharov

Cisco’s Game-Changing NVIDIA Partnership & AI Solutions Are A Potential Masterstroke? - Major Drivers

Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch...

Baptista Research

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AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

​AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron's HBM DRAM Growth?

​SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

​Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...

Nicolas Baratte

Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR

Rubrik shares outperformed in 2024 with shares up ~102% vs. IPO offer price of $32/share. In my insight, I set a new PT for Rubrik and discuss...

Andrei Zakharov

Cisco’s Game-Changing NVIDIA Partnership & AI Solutions Are A Potential Masterstroke? - Major Drivers

Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch...

Baptista Research

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

SK Hynix predicts 100% HBM revenue growth in 2025E, signaling a shift away from traditional DRAM importance. DeepSeek fears raise concerns for HBM...

Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...