Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.</li><li>The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.</li><li>KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Ligent Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ligent-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45722:1" rel="noopener">Ligent Technologies (9856 HK)</a>' IPO looks to raise HK$5.4bn at HK$32.96/share. This optical communication and connectivity product provider, however, does not stand out. </li>
<li>It will benefit from the current AI investment trend, driving a 3-year EPS CAGR of 59.7%. With Hisense Group being its controlling shareholder, it can leverage on this relationship.</li>
<li>Its 1H26 gross margin is low, hence difficult to justify a premium. Optimistically, it can trade on par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a>'s 10.7x FY27 PER, equalling HK$36.06. </li>
</ul>



Ligent Technologies (9856 HK)' IPO looks to raise HK$5.4bn at HK$32.96/share. This optical communication and connectivity product provider, however, does not stand out. 
It will benefit from the current AI investment trend, driving a 3-year EPS CAGR of 59.7%. With Hisense Group being its controlling shareholder, it can leverage on this relationship.
Its 1H26 gross margin is low, hence difficult to justify a premium. Optimistically, it can trade on par with CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)'s 10.7x FY27 PER, equalling HK$36.06. 


Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Low Expectations

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,440 points (50-day EMA)/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,452/1,456 points.</li><li>This easing inflation trend increases the likelihood that the Fed will lower the policy rate by an additional 25 bps at the December 2024 meeting.</li><li>SCB reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt11bn (+13% YoY, +9% QoQ), 8% better than our estimate, due to lower-than-expected provisions and operating expenses.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,440 points (50-day EMA)/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,452/1,456 points.This easing inflation trend increases the likelihood that the Fed will lower the policy rate by an additional 25 bps at the December 2024 meeting.SCB reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt11bn (+13% YoY, +9% QoQ), 8% better than our estimate, due to lower-than-expected provisions and operating expenses.

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.</li><li>MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.</li><li>At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.</li></ul>

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at 1,287/1,282 points.</li><li>We recommend buying back if the Constitutional Court rules to dismiss the case regarding the impeachment of PM Srettha, given the attractive risk-reward.</li><li>In the worst-case scenario, if the Constitutional Court rules to remove the PM from office and there is chaos in forming a new government, disrupting the continuity of government policy implementation, the market may require a higher MRP than the 90-day moving average – potentially up to 5 S.D.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at 1,287/1,282 points.We recommend buying back if the Constitutional Court rules to dismiss the case regarding the impeachment of PM Srettha, given the attractive risk-reward.In the worst-case scenario, if the Constitutional Court rules to remove the PM from office and there is chaos in forming a new government, disrupting the continuity of government policy implementation, the market may require a higher MRP than the 90-day moving average – potentially up to 5 S.D.

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points. The...

Krungthai XSpring

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Low Expectations

Ligent's IPO is not particularly attractive, given its low margin against peers and mid-tier industry position. It is cheap though, and at par to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Strategic Daily Picks

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,440 points (50-day EMA)/1,432 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31. MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days. At the other end,...

ORTEX Market Intel

US CPI & Legal Case Against PM Srettha

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

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