Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.</li>
<li>On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.</li>
<li>Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.</li>
</ul>


This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.


Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion about the potential for Chinese companies to use shell corporations to rent GPUs from American companies</li><li>Mention of a blog post by Sequoia and a report from Goldman Sachs on the challenges of monetizing AI infrastructure</li><li>Skepticism about the return on investment in AI due to lack of clear revenue sources and consumer use cases, particularly with companies like Microsoft and Amazon investing billions in AI projects.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion about the potential for Chinese companies to use shell corporations to rent GPUs from American companiesMention of a blog post by Sequoia and a report from Goldman Sachs on the challenges of monetizing AI infrastructureSkepticism about the return on investment in AI due to lack of clear revenue sources and consumer use cases, particularly with companies like Microsoft and Amazon investing billions in AI projects.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,380 points) and the resistance at 1,380 points (75-day EMA)/1,385 points.</li><li>Keep an eye on the earnings results of Cisco System (EPS expected at USD0.83 vs. USD1.00 in the previous quarter), MUFG (EPS expected JPY12.80 vs. JPY63.04 in the previous quarter), Merck (EPS expected at DEM1.88 vs. DEM2.36 in the previous quarter) and JD.com (EPS expected at USD4.69 vs. USD4.76 in the previous quarter)</li><li>The consensus expects a slight weakening compared to the previous month at +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM, +3.6% YoY, respectively (vs. March at +0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY and +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY, respectively).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,380 points) and the resistance at 1,380 points (75-day EMA)/1,385 points.Keep an eye on the earnings results of Cisco System (EPS expected at USD0.83 vs. USD1.00 in the previous quarter), MUFG (EPS expected JPY12.80 vs. JPY63.04 in the previous quarter), Merck (EPS expected at DEM1.88 vs. DEM2.36 in the previous quarter) and JD.com (EPS expected at USD4.69 vs. USD4.76 in the previous quarter)The consensus expects a slight weakening compared to the previous month at +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM, +3.6% YoY, respectively (vs. March at +0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY and +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY, respectively).

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The global Smart Cities market size was valued at $1.5 trillion in 2020 and is projected to grow to $11 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of more than 20%.</li><li>While North America is currently the largest market, Asia-Pacific is projected to overtake it in a few years.</li><li>Smart Cities are urban areas that utilize digital infrastructure and interconnected systems, most likely using artificial intelligence (AI). </li></ul>

The global Smart Cities market size was valued at $1.5 trillion in 2020 and is projected to grow to $11 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of more than 20%.While North America is currently the largest market, Asia-Pacific is projected to overtake it in a few years.Smart Cities are urban areas that utilize digital infrastructure and interconnected systems, most likely using artificial intelligence (AI). 

Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55331:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK)</a>'s 2Q26 net profit surged 228.2%, with gross and operating margins expanding 5.3pp and 7.9pp, respectively, rebuffing the market's concerns.</li>
<li>There is room for earnings upgrades. Management has indicated that raw material price pressure will soften and that inventory is sufficient, benefiting 2H26 margin.</li>
<li>Its HA premium has picked up after the IPO and is currently at 3.6%. Applying a 10% maximum justifiable premium, it means an H-share price of HK$1,210.50.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK)'s 2Q26 net profit surged 228.2%, with gross and operating margins expanding 5.3pp and 7.9pp, respectively, rebuffing the market's concerns.
There is room for earnings upgrades. Management has indicated that raw material price pressure will soften and that inventory is sufficient, benefiting 2H26 margin.
Its HA premium has picked up after the IPO and is currently at 3.6%. Applying a 10% maximum justifiable premium, it means an H-share price of HK$1,210.50.


Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK): Rebuffing the Margin Concerns

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be...

Fabricated Knowledge

Episode 75: The AI Big $$$ Question

Skepticism about the return on investment in AI due to lack of clear revenue sources and consumer use cases, particularly with companies like...

The Circuit

World Market Summary

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise

The global Smart Cities market size was valued at $1.5 trillion in 2020 and is projected to grow to $11 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of more than 20%.

Water Tower Research

Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK): Rebuffing the Margin Concerns

Zhongji InnoLight's 2Q26 results demonstrated its margin resilience, providing room for an earnings upgrade. Its HA premium has also steadily...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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