Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the uptrend channel and could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Overall we believe the positives outweigh the concerns as highlighted in this week's report.  Also highlighted are actionable names in Retailing, Health Care, and small-cap Aero Defense.

The S&amp;P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the uptrend channel and could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Overall we believe the positives outweigh the concerns as highlighted in this week's report.  Also highlighted are actionable names in Retailing, Health Care, and small-cap Aero Defense.

S&P 500 Bullish but Extended; Downgrading Financials

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tfc-optical-communi-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25044:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A (300394 CH)</a> (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>SFTC offers one-stop optical interconnect solutions spanning passive optical components, active optical components and integration services.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A (300394 CH) (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
SFTC offers one-stop optical interconnect solutions spanning passive optical components, active optical components and integration services.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication A/H Listing - Rising Sales, Steady Margins

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Epiworld International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/epiworld-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47626:1" rel="noopener">EpiWorld International (2726 HK)</a>, while it is a global leader in the silicon carbide (SiC) epitaxy industry, has a weak profit record. Its IPO price looks demanding. </li>
<li>Its net profit will likely be relatively flat in FY26, before picking up in FY27 and FY28. However, whether the industry will bottom in 2H26 remains an unknown.</li>
<li>The stock's valuations of 117x PER and 35.6x P/S are not cheap relative to peers, implying that risks outweigh returns in its H-share IPO.</li>
</ul>



EpiWorld International (2726 HK), while it is a global leader in the silicon carbide (SiC) epitaxy industry, has a weak profit record. Its IPO price looks demanding. 
Its net profit will likely be relatively flat in FY26, before picking up in FY27 and FY28. However, whether the industry will bottom in 2H26 remains an unknown.
The stock's valuations of 117x PER and 35.6x P/S are not cheap relative to peers, implying that risks outweigh returns in its H-share IPO.


EpiWorld Intl (2726 HK) IPO: A Pricy (And Risky) Choice

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-denso-6902-reportedly-made-a-1-3trln-takeover-proposal-to-rohm-6963-light-iffy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:225967" rel="noopener">[Japan M&amp;A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light &amp; Iffy.</a>, the question is not Denso's desire but Rohm's willingness. </li>
<li>Denso may have a problem paying the right price to get Rohm, but Rohm may simply not wnat to be got. And I discussed the Toshiba angle. </li>
<li>Today the Nikkei reveals that Rohm and Toshiba are considering integrating their power semiconductor businesses. This is NOT a surprise. But it may feel like it. </li>
</ul>


As discussed in [Japan M&amp;A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light &amp; Iffy., the question is not Denso's desire but Rohm's willingness. 
Denso may have a problem paying the right price to get Rohm, but Rohm may simply not wnat to be got. And I discussed the Toshiba angle. 
Today the Nikkei reveals that Rohm and Toshiba are considering integrating their power semiconductor businesses. This is NOT a surprise. But it may feel like it. 


[Japan M&A] Now Rohm (6963) And Toshiba Mulling Power Semis Integration, Thwarting Denso?

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. </li>
<li>There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. 
There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.


Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

United States

Coherent Corp. designs engineered materials and optoelectronic components. The Company offers products to industrial, optical communications, military, life sciences, semiconductor equipment, and consumer markets. Coherent also manufactures semiconductor lasers and optics for high power industrial lasers, optical communications systems, datacenter connectivity, and 3D sensing.

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Coherent (COHR US)

S&P 500 Bullish but Extended; Downgrading Financials

The S&P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication A/H Listing - Rising Sales, Steady Margins

Suzhou Tfc Optical (300394 CH) (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

EpiWorld Intl (2726 HK) IPO: A Pricy (And Risky) Choice

EpiWorld International is a global leader in SiC epitaxy but has a weak profit record, with a demanding IPO price and an uncertain industry...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Japan M&A] Now Rohm (6963) And Toshiba Mulling Power Semis Integration, Thwarting Denso?

A Rohm-Toshiba story about integrating their power semiconductor businesses may not be an effort to thwart Denso's approach to Rohm, but it may...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

The SP500/400/600 review results for March 2026 were announced Friday. We got 2 of the four SP500 ADDs correct (our model defaults to two changes)...

Anjana Amarasuriya

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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S&P 500 Bullish but Extended; Downgrading Financials

The S&P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication A/H Listing - Rising Sales, Steady Margins

Suzhou Tfc Optical (300394 CH) (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

EpiWorld Intl (2726 HK) IPO: A Pricy (And Risky) Choice

​EpiWorld International is a global leader in SiC epitaxy but has a weak profit record, with a demanding IPO price and an uncertain industry...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Japan M&A] Now Rohm (6963) And Toshiba Mulling Power Semis Integration, Thwarting Denso?

A Rohm-Toshiba story about integrating their power semiconductor businesses may not be an effort to thwart Denso's approach to Rohm, but it may...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

The SP500/400/600 review results for March 2026 were announced Friday. We got 2 of the four SP500 ADDs correct (our model defaults to two changes)...

Anjana Amarasuriya

EpiWorld International is a global leader in SiC epitaxy but has a weak profit record, with a demanding IPO price and an uncertain industry...