Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  </li>
<li>A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  
A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. 


<ul>
<li>Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.</li>
<li>The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.</li>
<li> The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  </li>
</ul>


Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.
The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.
 The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  


Equity Bottom-Up

*Delays and inefficiency in restructuring execution.* Inability to meet strategic targets will have an adverse impact.* Continued deterioration in macro and persistence of low rates to affect lending and client volumes while deterioration in macro environment increases the cost of risk.* Shares trade at 0.3x TBV and 11.3 x P/E (vs. Eurozone banks at 8.6x).* Global monetary policy, cycle and industry pricing pressures are key to watch.

*Delays and inefficiency in restructuring execution.* Inability to meet strategic targets will have an adverse impact.* Continued deterioration in macro and persistence of low rates to affect lending and client volumes while deterioration in macro environment increases the cost of risk.* Shares trade at 0.3x TBV and 11.3 x P/E (vs. Eurozone banks at 8.6x).* Global monetary policy, cycle and industry pricing pressures are key to watch.

Deutsche Bank - When Will This Old Nag Be Put Down?

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  Investment SummaryDeutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Global Stall Speed Growth Confirmed

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Market Impact of Oil Shock

Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - When Will This Old Nag Be Put Down?

Delays and inefficiency in restructuring execution. Inability to meet strategic targets will have an adverse impact.* Continued deterioration in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Still A Dumpster Fire

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations; * Deutsche still...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Stall Speed Growth Confirmed

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Market Impact of Oil Shock

Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - When Will This Old Nag Be Put Down?

*Delays and inefficiency in restructuring execution.* Inability to meet strategic targets will have an adverse impact.* Continued deterioration in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Still A Dumpster Fire

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations; * Deutsche still...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Delays and inefficiency in restructuring execution. Inability to meet strategic targets will have an adverse impact.* Continued deterioration in...