US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aib-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43916:1" rel="noopener">AIB Group (AIBG IE)</a> is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float decrease in Global and European Indices as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit</a> bought more than what the German Government sold.</li>
<li>The UK Government continues slashing its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.</li>
</ul>



AIB Group (AIBG IE) is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float decrease in Global and European Indices as UniCredit bought more than what the German Government sold.
The UK Government continues slashing its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.


European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a> has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network (600050 CH)</a> is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>.
</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP) has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for Benefit One (2412 JP) work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.

China United Network (600050 CH) is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to China Unicom (762 HK). Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long Zheshang Securities (601878 CH).



Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.</li>
<li>In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).</li>
<li>The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.</li>
</ul>


The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.
In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).
The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.


Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further following the reports of strong US economic figures.</li><li>However, private consumption held up well (+5.70% YoY), especially expenditures in the hotel and restaurant sector (+92.80% YoY), which is expected to create positive sentiment for stocks in the retail and food sectors.</li><li>The agency now expects Thailand's 2023E GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID-19 level at +3.7% YoY.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further following the reports of strong US economic figures.However, private consumption held up well (+5.70% YoY), especially expenditures in the hotel and restaurant sector (+92.80% YoY), which is expected to create positive sentiment for stocks in the retail and food sectors.The agency now expects Thailand's 2023E GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID-19 level at +3.7% YoY.

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.</li>
<li>As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.
As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Krungthai XSpring Zoom

The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

The largest DAX member Linde AG (LIN GR) is expected to get deleted in February 2023 triggering extraordinary index changes and US$2.7bn in reverse...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

​European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

​German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Krungthai XSpring Zoom

The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

The largest DAX member Linde AG (LIN GR) is expected to get deleted in February 2023 triggering extraordinary index changes and US$2.7bn in reverse...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.