Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Huaqin Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48099:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin (3296 HK)</a>'s leadership position in the smart product ODM platform business is an important strength, with 3-year EPS CAGR forecast at 22.8%.</li>
<li>At a maximum IPO price of HK$77.70, it is priced at 13.7x FY26 PER. Relative to an average of 13.2x for global peers, it is not particularly cheap.</li>
<li>It should trade at a premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-longcheer-technology-co-ltd-64676fe9-6624-4553-a2d4-3e9ecf3a5d6e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46338:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Longcheer (9611 HK)</a> though. At a 20-25% discount to A-share, Huaqin's H-share is valued at HK$84.70-90.70 (15-16x FY26 PER).</li>
</ul>



Huaqin (3296 HK)'s leadership position in the smart product ODM platform business is an important strength, with 3-year EPS CAGR forecast at 22.8%.
At a maximum IPO price of HK$77.70, it is priced at 13.7x FY26 PER. Relative to an average of 13.2x for global peers, it is not particularly cheap.
It should trade at a premium to Shanghai Longcheer (9611 HK) though. At a 20-25% discount to A-share, Huaqin's H-share is valued at HK$84.70-90.70 (15-16x FY26 PER).


Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated short interest was USD35.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial, Winbond Electronics, Elite Material.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated short interest was USD35.6bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial, Winbond Electronics, Elite Material.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 10th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Taiwan

Compal Electronics Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and color monitors.  The Company also produces liquid crystal displays and other computer related products.  Compal Electronics exports its products to the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Compal Electronics (2324 TT)

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 10th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

​Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 10th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, CTBC Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...