Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Where is the global commodity super cycle that everyone keeps predicting? </li>
<li>Industrial metals have outperformed energy (as we predicted) and will likely continue to do so</li>
<li>Selective positioning in the commodity space remains of vital value with no super cycle in sight</li>
</ul>


Where is the global commodity super cycle that everyone keeps predicting? 
Industrial metals have outperformed energy (as we predicted) and will likely continue to do so
Selective positioning in the commodity space remains of vital value with no super cycle in sight


Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>The Rabobank issued a research note last week where they forecasted that prices for agricultural commodities like coffee, feed grains and oilseeds could dip next year as many major economies enter recession, but also stated that they will remain high in historical terms.</li><li>We think the general call is correct, but the timing isn’t. We already see this dip move playing out at the moment.</li><li>Just take a look at coffee, cotton, oil, or copper. We believe this dip in the long-term cyclical bull market will end towards Q2 of 2022 before the rally in many commodity markets resumes again as demand strikes back.</li></ul>

The Rabobank issued a research note last week where they forecasted that prices for agricultural commodities like coffee, feed grains and oilseeds could dip next year as many major economies enter recession, but also stated that they will remain high in historical terms.We think the general call is correct, but the timing isn’t. We already see this dip move playing out at the moment.Just take a look at coffee, cotton, oil, or copper. We believe this dip in the long-term cyclical bull market will end towards Q2 of 2022 before the rally in many commodity markets resumes again as demand strikes back.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems a bit early still.</li>
<li>Gold trendline and price pivot at 1,700 the key level to clear or will retest the 1,620 triple lows. </li>
<li>DXY to rally off of 110 support within the triangle range and will see metals pullback. Bigger picture needs a break below 109.50 (bearish) to overlay with metals.</li>
</ul>


Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems a bit early still.
Gold trendline and price pivot at 1,700 the key level to clear or will retest the 1,620 triple lows. 
DXY to rally off of 110 support within the triangle range and will see metals pullback. Bigger picture needs a break below 109.50 (bearish) to overlay with metals.


<ul><li>Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain since many industrial users will hold their own reserves of the metal.</li><li>But visible stocks can have a significant influence on sentiment in the market.</li><li>It’s just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry, yet the physical market is so tight.</li></ul>

Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain since many industrial users will hold their own reserves of the metal.But visible stocks can have a significant influence on sentiment in the market.It’s just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry, yet the physical market is so tight.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

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The awaited Chinese lifebuoy for the global economy, which the reopening consensually was thought to be, has yet to truly show up in prices of...

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The Commodity Report #78

The Rabobank issued a research note last week where they forecasted that prices for agricultural commodities like coffee, feed grains and oilseeds...

The Commodity Report

Copper Long Needs USD to Break Lower

Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems...

Thomas Schroeder

The Commodity Report #74

Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain

The Commodity Report

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

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