Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA

Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Recent shorts in metals did meet if not exceed downside targets at copper 4.0, palladium 2,350 with platinum still contending with triangulation. Short re cycle levels and break points are the focus.China and the USD are key inputs to drive a fresh down leg in base metals. The demand side of the equation (China) is overshadowing the USD pullback (nearing support). We are also moving into a seasonally weak period for risk.Gold remains bullish to test 1,850 where a tactical top is due.

Recent shorts in metals did meet if not exceed downside targets at copper 4.0, palladium 2,350 with platinum still contending with triangulation. Short re cycle levels and break points are the focus.China and the USD are key inputs to drive a fresh down leg in base metals. The demand side of the equation (China) is overshadowing the USD pullback (nearing support). We are also moving into a seasonally weak period for risk.Gold remains bullish to test 1,850 where a tactical top is due.

Call to short base metals saw a sharp decline and met key tactical targets with bounces viewed as a fresh selling opportunity. What is more concerning is the demand message such a move sends.Copper broke trendline support. Platinum's bounce was rejected under pivot resistance. Palladium's sharp decline warns of bigger problems below 2,450.Fresh sell levels are: Copper 4.18, platinum 1,030/20 and palladium near 2,450.

Call to short base metals saw a sharp decline and met key tactical targets with bounces viewed as a fresh selling opportunity. What is more concerning is the demand message such a move sends.Copper broke trendline support. Platinum's bounce was rejected under pivot resistance. Palladium's sharp decline warns of bigger problems below 2,450.Fresh sell levels are: Copper 4.18, platinum 1,030/20 and palladium near 2,450.

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

The Chilean peso has given up its outperformance from earlier this year following the central bank's dovish hike. We remain constructive on the currency on the back of the market-friendly outcome of the presidential primaries last weekend, upward revisions to Chile's growth, the outlook for copper prices, and the possibility that the central bank raises rates faster than currently priced.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Chilean peso has given up its outperformance from earlier this year following the central bank's dovish hike. We remain constructive on the currency on the back of the market-friendly outcome of the presidential primaries last weekend, upward revisions to Chile's growth, the outlook for copper prices, and the possibility that the central bank raises rates faster than currently priced.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on the Chilean Peso

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

Financials (XLF) are on the cusp of a breakout above $39, while copper is on the cusp of a breakout above $4.38; breakouts above resistance would...

Vermilion Research

Metals Re Short/Breakout Levels

Recent shorts in metals did meet if not exceed downside targets at copper 4.0, palladium 2,350 with platinum still contending with triangulation....

Thomas Schroeder

Metals Short Targets Met - Red Flag

Call to short base metals saw a sharp decline and met key tactical targets with bounces viewed as a fresh selling opportunity. What is more...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on the Chilean Peso

We remain constructive on the Chilean peso on the back of the market-friendly outcome of the presidential primaries last weekend and upward...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

In May, we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the...

Thomas Schroeder

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Market Cap (USDm)

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