Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over Developed Markets.From a cyclical and technical point of view, this will be illustrated by weaker levels on Copper and linked currencies such as AUD or CLP

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over Developed Markets.From a cyclical and technical point of view, this will be illustrated by weaker levels on Copper and linked currencies such as AUD or CLP

Copper (HG1): Back at Resistance for a New 23/30% Drop

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

After hitting our core rally target at DXY 97 we have noted cracks in USD strength and transitioning into some USD short positions. More importantly we outlined USD/CNH weakness from our turn target at 6.94 with pressure mounting to break below 6.80 and press on the bigger 6.70 support. This sequence is a positive for metals (gold, copper and palladium) that is expected to lift linked assets this week and after a September draw down we see scope for metals to perform in October. WTI remains bullish in our work and leading the rally sequence.We run through some stock long themes in Asia in a webcast.

After hitting our core rally target at DXY 97 we have noted cracks in USD strength and transitioning into some USD short positions. More importantly we outlined USD/CNH weakness from our turn target at 6.94 with pressure mounting to break below 6.80 and press on the bigger 6.70 support. This sequence is a positive for metals (gold, copper and palladium) that is expected to lift linked assets this week and after a September draw down we see scope for metals to perform in October. WTI remains bullish in our work and leading the rally sequence.We run through some stock long themes in Asia in a webcast.

Metals Long Theme on Weak USD and China Bounce

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Equity Bottom-Up

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shares are oversold versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/147" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1">Bhp Billiton (BHP AU)</a> and recommend a pair trade: long Rio; short BHP.  Our analysis of each company’s earnings sensitivities to recent commodity price changes reveals much less contention to their earnings outlook than their share price changes since mid-June implies.  We look for Rio’s shares to regain 16% on a relative basis versus BHP into the next earning cycle.

INVESTMENT VIEW:   We believe Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shares are oversold versus Bhp Billiton (BHP AU) and recommend a pair trade: long Rio; short BHP.  Our analysis of each company’s earnings sensitivities to recent commodity price changes reveals much less contention to their earnings outlook than their share price changes since mid-June implies.  We look for Rio’s shares to regain 16% on a relative basis versus BHP into the next earning cycle. 

US$20bn in Lost Market Cap Looks Hard to Justify: Recommend Long Rio; Short BHP

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe further easing measures may be required if the Chinese authorities wish to re-stimulate the economy. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22872" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22872:1">Copper (COPPER COMDTY)</a> prices have rallied just 2% off their 19th July lows, which is a much more muted response than we have seen from previous China easing cycles.  This is because this year’s measures look much more modest in comparison.  
DR COPPER’S PROGNOSIS:  ‘The patient requires more aggressive treatment’, is what we believe Dr Copper is saying right now…

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe further easing measures may be required if the Chinese authorities wish to re-stimulate the economy. Copper (COPPER COMDTY) prices have rallied just 2% off their 19th July lows, which is a much more muted response than we have seen from previous China easing cycles.  This is because this year’s measures look much more modest in comparison.  
DR COPPER’S PROGNOSIS:  ‘The patient requires more aggressive treatment’, is what we believe Dr Copper is saying right now…

Dr Copper’s Prognosis of China’s Policy Easing So Far…Stronger Treatment Required

Copper has formed a macro dual top at the 3.30 zone but the stage is set for a reaction trade higher from price support at the 2.72 level and a key risk pivot point to work with. A bounce would also be in sympathy with the China bounce that is unfolding and will produce a trade in copper and metal linked stocks in HK and the likes of RIO and COPX. A bounce in copper also aligns with a pending top for the USD in parts of Asia, given the USD rally is in the final innings.The break of 2.95 support…

Copper has formed a macro dual top at the 3.30 zone but the stage is set for a reaction trade higher from price support at the 2.72 level and a key risk pivot point to work with. A bounce would also be in sympathy with the China bounce that is unfolding and will produce a trade in copper and metal linked stocks in HK and the likes of RIO and COPX. A bounce in copper also aligns with a pending top for the USD in parts of Asia, given the USD rally is in the final innings.The break of 2.95 support…

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper (HG1): Back at Resistance for a New 23/30% Drop

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over...

Guillaume Coutant

Metals Long Theme on Weak USD and China Bounce

After hitting our core rally target at DXY 97 we have noted cracks in USD strength and transitioning into some USD short positions. More...

Thomas Schroeder

Dr Copper’s Prognosis of China’s Policy Easing So Far…Stronger Treatment Required

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe further easing measures may be required if the Chinese authorities wish to re-stimulate the economy. Copper (COPPER...

Charles Spencer

Copper Play off of Solid Support

Copper has formed a macro dual top at the 3.30 zone but the stage is set for a reaction trade higher from price support at the 2.72 level and a key...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper (HG1): Back at Resistance for a New 23/30% Drop

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over...

Guillaume Coutant

Metals Long Theme on Weak USD and China Bounce

After hitting our core rally target at DXY 97 we have noted cracks in USD strength and transitioning into some USD short positions. More...

Thomas Schroeder

US$20bn in Lost Market Cap Looks Hard to Justify: Recommend Long Rio; Short BHP

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shares are oversold versus Bhp Billiton (BHP AU) and recommend a pair trade: long Rio; short...

Charles Spencer

Dr Copper’s Prognosis of China’s Policy Easing So Far…Stronger Treatment Required

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe further easing measures may be required if the Chinese authorities wish to re-stimulate the economy. Copper (COPPER...

Charles Spencer

Copper Play off of Solid Support

Copper has formed a macro dual top at the 3.30 zone but the stage is set for a reaction trade higher from price support at the 2.72 level and a key...

Thomas Schroeder