Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.</li>
<li>When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11021:1" rel="noopener">Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP)</a>, 6.58% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12970:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP)</a>. In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.</li>
<li>That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.</li>
</ul>


In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.
When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP), 6.58% of Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP). In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.
That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.


Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

<ul>
<li>Yesterday after the close, well-known Japanese activist Murakami-san's preferred entity City Index Eleventh filed a Large Shareholder Report. </li>
<li>The blast across Bloomberg was "<strong>*AOZORA 5.4% STAKE REPORTED BY CITY INDEX ELEVENTH.</strong>" Sounds exciting after the shares dropped 34% in two days earlier this month after reporting big writedowns. </li>
<li>But there has to be a question here. Why? And Why this way? And what kind of activism would be possible? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday after the close, well-known Japanese activist Murakami-san's preferred entity City Index Eleventh filed a Large Shareholder Report. 
The blast across Bloomberg was "*AOZORA 5.4% STAKE REPORTED BY CITY INDEX ELEVENTH." Sounds exciting after the shares dropped 34% in two days earlier this month after reporting big writedowns. 
But there has to be a question here. Why? And Why this way? And what kind of activism would be possible? 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?

<ul>
<li>A couple of weeks ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-murakami-san-goes-substantial-on-pacific-metals-5541-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> about noted activist Murakami-san and his new 5+% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a>. I warned it might be a rug pull. </li>
<li>It turns out, from subsequent filings, that it may have been a rug pull. This isn't the first time. It isn't even the first time on this stock. </li>
<li>That said, there are goings on here, and it pays to watch them. </li>
</ul>


A couple of weeks ago I wrote here about noted activist Murakami-san and his new 5+% position in Pacific Metals (5541 JP). I warned it might be a rug pull. 
It turns out, from subsequent filings, that it may have been a rug pull. This isn't the first time. It isn't even the first time on this stock. 
That said, there are goings on here, and it pays to watch them. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Murakami-San Does a Rug-Pull on Pac Metals (5541).... Again

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Idemitsu has bought two corporate stakes in Fuji Oil to go from 6+% to nearly 22%. This is not a big surprise. There's history. Medium-long-term, a...

Travis Lundy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?

Murakami-san's daughter bought 5.4% of Aozora Bank. It could be activism or it could be another pump'n'dump like Pacific Metals. It is tough to...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-San Does a Rug-Pull on Pac Metals (5541).... Again

Pacific Metals was a Murakami target for the second time in just over two years. And for the second time in just over two years, it was a rug pull....

Travis Lundy

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