IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> Board has opposed YFO’s potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share but has kept the door open for an improved offer. </li>
<li>YFO is running out of options as a YFO candidate-heavy special committee opposed its proposal, and the share price is trading through terms. </li>
<li>YFO has three options: a hostile offer at an unchanged price, an improved price, or exit its position. Each option has issues suggesting a lack of short-term share price support.  </li>
</ul>


The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has opposed YFO’s potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share but has kept the door open for an improved offer. 
YFO is running out of options as a YFO candidate-heavy special committee opposed its proposal, and the share price is trading through terms. 
YFO has three options: a hostile offer at an unchanged price, an improved price, or exit its position. Each option has issues suggesting a lack of short-term share price support.  


Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.</li>
<li>Cosmo wasn't going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. </li>
<li>A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwatani-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15459:1" rel="noopener">Iwatani Corp (8088 JP)</a> announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san's 20.01% holding.</li>
</ul>


The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
Cosmo wasn't going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. 
A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san's 20.01% holding.


Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

<ul>
<li>Japanese activist Murakami-san and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. </li>
<li>Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/content/dam/corp/jp/ja/news/2023/10/24-1/pdf/231024jp_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doc</a> (Japanese).</li>
<li>At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.</li>
</ul>


Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. 
Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.


Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

YFO has withdrawn its JPY1,255 offer. YFO dispute centres on the feasibility of the medium-term management plan as “there have already been...

Arun George

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

Murakami-san is OUT of Cosmo Energy. Petro/Industrial Gases co Iwatani Corp has bought a 19.9% stake. This may be without warning to Cosmo. It's...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

YFO has withdrawn its JPY1,255 offer. YFO dispute centres on the feasibility of the medium-term management plan as “there have already been...

Arun George

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

Murakami-san is OUT of Cosmo Energy. Petro/Industrial Gases co Iwatani Corp has bought a 19.9% stake. This may be without warning to Cosmo. It's...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

​Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...