Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities had another good week with the TOPIX ending 1.7% higher</li>
<li>Japanese stocks have outperformed global peers since May on strong domestic earnings, a weak yen, and enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. </li>
<li>Softbank seems to be one of the AI names. Activist campaigns now in full flow ahead of AGMs</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities had another good week with the TOPIX ending 1.7% higher
Japanese stocks have outperformed global peers since May on strong domestic earnings, a weak yen, and enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. 
Softbank seems to be one of the AI names. Activist campaigns now in full flow ahead of AGMs


Japan Weekly | Softbank, Hino Motors, Cosmo Energy, Kumagai Gumi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.</li>
<li>The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.</li>
<li>Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/en/about/ir/management/mediumterm/pdf/7thmediumterm.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mid-Term Management Plan</a>. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX ekes out +0.3% gains; Only Tech &amp; Telcos Positive while other 9 sectors in the Red; Fed's dot plot says 5.1%;  Hinderburg takes aim at BLOCK (Square)</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9 as US Rate hike fears wane;  Japan ends export restrictions on semi materials to S. Korea; Softbank's ARM to change pricing rules</li>
<li>NUGGET. Japan's Hay Fever Hell: Few Winners, Many Losers. Winners: drugstores, pharmacists, e-commerce; Losers: everyone related to Outdoor activities !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX ekes out +0.3% gains; Only Tech &amp; Telcos Positive while other 9 sectors in the Red; Fed's dot plot says 5.1%;  Hinderburg takes aim at BLOCK (Square)
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9 as US Rate hike fears wane;  Japan ends export restrictions on semi materials to S. Korea; Softbank's ARM to change pricing rules
NUGGET. Japan's Hay Fever Hell: Few Winners, Many Losers. Winners: drugstores, pharmacists, e-commerce; Losers: everyone related to Outdoor activities !


Good Morning Japan |Dot Plot Says 5.1%; Tech Leads Gains; NUGGET: Japan's Hay Fever Hell-Few Winners

<ul>
<li>On 14 February 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. </li>
<li>Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. </li>
<li>However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. </li>
</ul>


On 14 February 2023, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. 
Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. 
However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. 


Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

<ul>
<li>YFO offered another <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000022.000071768.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Press Release</a> yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.</li>
<li>The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.</li>
<li>NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors <em>"capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  </em>Soft war starts now.</li>
</ul>


YFO offered another Press Release yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.
The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.
NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors "capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  Soft war starts now.


YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Japan Weekly | Softbank, Hino Motors, Cosmo Energy, Kumagai Gumi

Japanese equities had another good week with the TOPIX ending 1.7% higher. Winners last week included Softbank, Hino Motors, Money Forward and Renesas

Mark Chadwick

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Dot Plot Says 5.1%; Tech Leads Gains; NUGGET: Japan's Hay Fever Hell-Few Winners

NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash while the USD/JPY exchange rate was 130.9 as fears over US interest rate hikes moderates. With lower rate hike expectations,...

Mark Chadwick

Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

Idemitsu (5019) announced a bad Q3 result, with petroleum products doing very badly. Full-year forecasts are lowered. A buyback was announced,...

Travis Lundy

YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

YFO has come out with another statement on Toyo Construction while Toyo remains curiously quiet. There's more detail which should distress...

Travis Lundy

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