Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus regional gasoil prices.</li><li>Sustained strength of base oils margins suggests supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.</li><li>Balanced-to-tight fundamentals at end-Q3 would follow signs of smaller-than-usual build-up of surplus supplies in early-Q3.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus regional gasoil prices.Sustained strength of base oils margins suggests supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.Balanced-to-tight fundamentals at end-Q3 would follow signs of smaller-than-usual build-up of surplus supplies in early-Q3.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India.</li><li>Regional demand could get additional support from blenders’ balanced-to-tight stocks in some markets.</li><li>Balanced-to-tight-stocks would boost need for regular replenishment supplies.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India.Regional demand could get additional support from blenders’ balanced-to-tight stocks in some markets.Balanced-to-tight-stocks would boost need for regular replenishment supplies.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.</li>
<li>Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.</li>
</ul>


Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
Valuation &amp; Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.


ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.</li><li>Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.</li><li>Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.</li><li>Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.</li></ul>

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus regional gasoil prices. Sustained strength of base oils margins suggests supply-demand fundamentals...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India. Regional demand could get...

Base Oil News

ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

ENEOS, Japan's top energy group, faces earnings fluctuations due to oil prices and inventory losses, with valuation above fair value and risks...

Rahul Jain

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia,...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025. Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus regional gasoil prices. Sustained strength of base oils margins suggests supply-demand fundamentals...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India. Regional demand could get...

Base Oil News

ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

​ENEOS, Japan's top energy group, faces earnings fluctuations due to oil prices and inventory losses, with valuation above fair value and risks...

Rahul Jain

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia,...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025. Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move...

Base Oil News

ENEOS, Japan's top energy group, faces earnings fluctuations due to oil prices and inventory losses, with valuation above fair value and risks...