Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Japanese activist Murakami-san and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. </li>
<li>Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/content/dam/corp/jp/ja/news/2023/10/24-1/pdf/231024jp_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doc</a> (Japanese).</li>
<li>At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.</li>
</ul>


Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. 
Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.


Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

<ul>
<li>In my piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamauchi-family-office-buys-more-toyo-toyo-claims-more-malfeasance-iss-supports-yfo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104604" rel="noopener">Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO</a> I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.</li>
<li>I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.</li>
<li>What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. </li>
</ul>


In my piece Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.
I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.
What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. 


Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> and noted Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and affiliates/companies have been duking it out for the better part of a year. </li>
<li>Now Cosmo is putting a Poison Pill to an AGM vote. And it has decided to not allow Murakami-san to vote his shares. Because he is an interested party.</li>
<li>INVESTORS NEED TO BE AWARE. This is the second time a company has sought to deny a shareholder its voting rights without legal basis. The last time the court agreed.</li>
</ul>



Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) and noted Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and affiliates/companies have been duking it out for the better part of a year. 
Now Cosmo is putting a Poison Pill to an AGM vote. And it has decided to not allow Murakami-san to vote his shares. Because he is an interested party.
INVESTORS NEED TO BE AWARE. This is the second time a company has sought to deny a shareholder its voting rights without legal basis. The last time the court agreed.


Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.</li>
<li>The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.</li>
<li>Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/en/about/ir/management/mediumterm/pdf/7thmediumterm.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mid-Term Management Plan</a>. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.


Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

YFO "won" an AGM vs entrenched Toyo Construction mgmt. A great result. How? Retail+Corps sold in '22. Other foreigners did not, and sided with YFO....

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

Cosmo Energy Management has a plan. Murakami proposes a different one. So now management wants to hold a vote with a plan to stifle Murakami-san in...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

​Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

YFO "won" an AGM vs entrenched Toyo Construction mgmt. A great result. How? Retail+Corps sold in '22. Other foreigners did not, and sided with YFO....

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

Cosmo Energy Management has a plan. Murakami proposes a different one. So now management wants to hold a vote with a plan to stifle Murakami-san in...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...