Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7/15/33%</li><li>On a full-year basis, these were the highest ever</li><li>CIL is seeing strong pre-buy for its below 800kW power gensets as the CPCB 4+ norm will become effective from 1 July 2023</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7/15/33%On a full-year basis, these were the highest everCIL is seeing strong pre-buy for its below 800kW power gensets as the CPCB 4+ norm will become effective from 1 July 2023Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Oil India, Phoenix Mills, Emami

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-agarwal-s-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43984:1" rel="noopener">Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)</a> raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

<ul><li>The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn</li><li>With this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bn</li><li>Competitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bnWith this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bnCompetitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials -  Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

India

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

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Cummins India (KKC IN)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Oil India, Phoenix Mills, Emami

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7...

HDFC Securities

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

TPG and Temasek are selling part of their stakes , around 11% of Dr Agarwal Health Care's existing share capital, to raise around US$183m, at a...

Akshat Shah

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

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