Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  </li>
<li>For BSE 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.

Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  
For BSE 100, Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained muted</li><li>FY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)</li><li>NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall ask</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained mutedFY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall askContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.
Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

<ul><li>Lupin: EBITDA growth (+98% YoY and +11% QoQ) was led by 20% YoY sales growth (US: flat QoQ, India +13% YoY, EMEA: +36% YoY and +71% RoW), higher GM (+629 bps YoY), but it was partly offset by higher costs (staff/R&amp;D/SG&amp;A up +16/ 23/ 15% YoY)</li><li>LPC expects the US business to see single-digit growth on traction in gSpiriva (targets ~40% market share in FY25) and new launches (opthal, injectable, respiratory, etc.)</li><li>It expects its India business to see double-digit growth as slower growth in anti-diabetic (patent expiry of in-licensing products in FY25) is expected to be offset by traction in key therapies and new launches</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lupin: EBITDA growth (+98% YoY and +11% QoQ) was led by 20% YoY sales growth (US: flat QoQ, India +13% YoY, EMEA: +36% YoY and +71% RoW), higher GM (+629 bps YoY), but it was partly offset by higher costs (staff/R&amp;D/SG&amp;A up +16/ 23/ 15% YoY)LPC expects the US business to see single-digit growth on traction in gSpiriva (targets ~40% market share in FY25) and new launches (opthal, injectable, respiratory, etc.)It expects its India business to see double-digit growth as slower growth in anti-diabetic (patent expiry of in-licensing products in FY25) is expected to be offset by traction in key therapies and new launchesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Lupin, Cummins, Apollo Tyres, Kalpataru Projects International

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

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Cummins India (KKC IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

Wipro will be replaced by Adani Ports & S.E.Zone in the SENSEX index as expected. There will be five changes for BSE 100 which are consistent with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity...

HDFC Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

I see Wipro as a high conviction DEL for SENSEX in June 2024 but there are questions marks over who will replace Wipro as size-based rankings and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Lupin, Cummins, Apollo Tyres, Kalpataru Projects International

Lupin: EBITDA growth (+98% YoY and +11% QoQ) was led by 20% YoY sales growth (US: flat QoQ, India +13% YoY, EMEA: +36% YoY and +71% RoW),

HDFC Securities

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

Wipro will be replaced by Adani Ports & S.E.Zone in the SENSEX index as expected. There will be five changes for BSE 100 which are consistent with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity...

HDFC Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

I see Wipro as a high conviction DEL for SENSEX in June 2024 but there are questions marks over who will replace Wipro as size-based rankings and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Lupin, Cummins, Apollo Tyres, Kalpataru Projects International

Lupin: EBITDA growth (+98% YoY and +11% QoQ) was led by 20% YoY sales growth (US: flat QoQ, India +13% YoY, EMEA: +36% YoY and +71% RoW),

HDFC Securities

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?