Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways program</li><li>Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share</li><li>This has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaults</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways programSubstantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market shareThis has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 years</li><li>While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growth</li><li>In this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curve</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 yearsWhile there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growthIn this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

<ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up 33.5% YoY to INR14.8bn</li><li>On a standalone basis, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR13.3bn/INR7.6bn</li><li>Q1FY23 revenue increased 6.8% YoY, led by moderate growth in transmission segment (+5.5% YoY) and strong growth in the telecom (+60.1% YoY) and consultancy (+53.2% YoY) segments</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up 33.5% YoY to INR14.8bnOn a standalone basis, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR13.3bn/INR7.6bnQ1FY23 revenue increased 6.8% YoY, led by moderate growth in transmission segment (+5.5% YoY) and strong growth in the telecom (+60.1% YoY) and consultancy (+53.2% YoY) segmentsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, ABB India, Cummins, Bharat Forge

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

India

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

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Cummins India (KKC IN)

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Infrastructure - Betting on Conservatism

Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, ABB India, Cummins, Bharat Forge

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up...

HDFC Securities

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

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