Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuation</li><li>Cement volume grew 10% YoY in Q2FY24 and its unit EBITDA expanded INR 25/MT QoQ to INR 1024/MT</li><li>Margin expanded INR 340/MT on a sharp fall in fuel costs (INR 0.8/mnCal and green power consumption share increased to 59% vs 51% YoY)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuationCement volume grew 10% YoY in Q2FY24 and its unit EBITDA expanded INR 25/MT QoQ to INR 1024/MTMargin expanded INR 340/MT on a sharp fall in fuel costs (INR 0.8/mnCal and green power consumption share increased to 59% vs 51% YoY)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Cummins, Prestige Estates, Apollo Tyres

<ul><li>Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuation</li><li>Cement volume grew 10% YoY in Q2FY24 and its unit EBITDA expanded INR 25/MT QoQ to INR 1024/MT</li><li>Margin expanded INR 340/MT on a sharp fall in fuel costs (INR 0.8/mnCal and green power consumption share increased to 59% vs 51% YoY).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuationCement volume grew 10% YoY in Q2FY24 and its unit EBITDA expanded INR 25/MT QoQ to INR 1024/MTMargin expanded INR 340/MT on a sharp fall in fuel costs (INR 0.8/mnCal and green power consumption share increased to 59% vs 51% YoY).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Cummins, Prestige Estates, Apollo Tyres, Alkyl Amines

<ul><li>NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)</li><li>The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ Way</li><li>We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capex</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ WayWe have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capexContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

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Cummins India (KKC IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Cummins, Prestige Estates, Apollo Tyres

Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuation

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Cummins, Prestige Estates, Apollo Tyres, Alkyl Amines

Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 24,000/share, owing to its expensive valuation

HDFC Securities

Industrials: N’HAI’ Way

We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards

HDFC Securities

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