Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s <strong>31 July 2025</strong> policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.</li>
<li>Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.</li>
<li>Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".</li>
</ul>


Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.
Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.
Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".


Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,017m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Advantest, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,017m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Advantest, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 4th): Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

<ul>
<li>Semi's and cons disc leading way higher, Japan set for strong start.</li>
<li>Apple breaking downtrend on news its releasing a new game center to better compete against consoles.</li>
<li>Nuclear names surging again which sets a continued positive tone for heavies and related.</li>
</ul>


Semi's and cons disc leading way higher, Japan set for strong start.
Apple breaking downtrend on news its releasing a new game center to better compete against consoles.
Nuclear names surging again which sets a continued positive tone for heavies and related.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On with Investors Liking Optimistic Tone from EU-US Talks

Japan

DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use.  The Company also produces fluorine chemical products such as fluorinated hydrocarbon gas and shells and warheads for defense industry.

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Daikin Industries (6367 JP)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 4th): Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Ntt Data (9613 JP), Ihi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On with Investors Liking Optimistic Tone from EU-US Talks

May be a lift for names in Japan with high EU exposures. EU defence spending increasing sentiment for anything related to nuclear plant...

Andrew Jackson

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