IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> announced a share exchange offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.</li>
<li>Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall's vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange's effective date is 1 July.</li>
</ul>



AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced a share exchange offer by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall's vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange's effective date is 1 July.


Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to a global index at the August rebalance. If added, passive trackers will need to buy over 6x ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> has traded lower on risk-off sentiment and further downside provides an entry point that could pay off if the stock is added to the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers but trades at similar valuations to some stocks. A long/short trade could protect the downside.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) is a potential inclusion to a global index at the August rebalance. If added, passive trackers will need to buy over 6x ADV.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has traded lower on risk-off sentiment and further downside provides an entry point that could pay off if the stock is added to the index.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has outperformed its peers but trades at similar valuations to some stocks. A long/short trade could protect the downside.


Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = <strong>CC=-3</strong>, a strong <strong>LONG</strong> signal.</li>
<li>The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-nky-monthly-trajectories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis</a>,  50%-75% reversal probability.</li>
<li>LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.
The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis,  50%-75% reversal probability.
LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Daiwa House Reit Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:237:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP)</a> is looking to raise US$175m from trimming a portion of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-reit-investment-cb077099-8006-45e4-83cf-6ac7f19cd384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11283:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Given that a selldown in the REIT hadn’t been explicitly guided, we would thus argue that the deal here isn’t particularly well flagged.</li>
<li>Overall, the base deal would represent 4.09% of the REIT’s total outstanding shares, representing 20 days of three month ADV.</li>
</ul>



Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) is looking to raise US$175m from trimming a portion of its stake in Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP).
Given that a selldown in the REIT hadn’t been explicitly guided, we would thus argue that the deal here isn’t particularly well flagged.
Overall, the base deal would represent 4.09% of the REIT’s total outstanding shares, representing 20 days of three month ADV.


Daiwa House REIT Placement - Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

Japan

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

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Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP)

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion

Sumitomo Forestry missed out on index inclusion in August. Then came the market wide selloff that took the stock a lot lower. The stock is up 35%...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

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Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon...

Arun George

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion

Sumitomo Forestry missed out on index inclusion in August. Then came the market wide selloff that took the stock a lot lower. The stock is up 35%...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

Daiwa House REIT Placement - Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction

Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) is looking to raise US$175m from trimming a portion of its stake in Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP).

Clarence Chu

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...