European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On June 27, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keywords-studios-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23476:1" rel="noopener">Keywords Studios (KWS LN)</a> received an updated cash offer of 2,450p/share from EQT (3.9% lower than initial 2,550p), 66.7% premium, implied EV €2,405 million, 13.2x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA,</li>
<li>22.4x Fwd P/E. The likelihood of a strategic buyer making an offer is low, while the offer from EQT is opportunistic, which will seek to merge Keywords with Virtuos.</li>
<li>The revised lower offer and the small extension to the PUSU deadline do not inspire optimism. Nevertheless, EQT remains a credible bidde. Gross spread stands at 5.9%. Maintain long.</li>
</ul>


On June 27, Keywords Studios (KWS LN) received an updated cash offer of 2,450p/share from EQT (3.9% lower than initial 2,550p), 66.7% premium, implied EV €2,405 million, 13.2x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA,
22.4x Fwd P/E. The likelihood of a strategic buyer making an offer is low, while the offer from EQT is opportunistic, which will seek to merge Keywords with Virtuos.
The revised lower offer and the small extension to the PUSU deadline do not inspire optimism. Nevertheless, EQT remains a credible bidde. Gross spread stands at 5.9%. Maintain long.


EQT/Keywords Studios: Lower Revised Offer

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
Tax-Loss Selling's a subject of interest in Australia. Retail investors will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.</li>
<li>Investors are caught out as the Aussie government "approves" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> buyng <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>. There is evidently a lot more going on in the background. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)</a> announces a biggish buyback. One could buy dips, but one should probably not chase. For that, suggest this acts as a range trade.</li>
</ul>



Tax-Loss Selling's a subject of interest in Australia. Retail investors will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
Investors are caught out as the Aussie government "approves" Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) buyng Austal Ltd (ASB AU). There is evidently a lot more going on in the background. 

West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP) announces a biggish buyback. One could buy dips, but one should probably not chase. For that, suggest this acts as a range trade.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Austal, West Japan Railway, PICC/PICC P&C

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Darktrace shares rallied ~64% in 2024 after the company raised FY24 revenue, adj. EBITDA guidance and Thoma Bravo offered 620 pence/share in cash to take Darktrace private.</li>
<li>The acquisition is expected to complete during 3Q or 4Q of 2024. The cybersecurity unicorn has delivered revenue growth at scale coupled with solid profitability and cash flow generation.</li>
<li>I maintained a bullish view on the undervalued stock and initiated coverage of Darktrace on January 11, 2023, with a 497p price target as steep discount was unjustified.</li>
</ul>


Darktrace shares rallied ~64% in 2024 after the company raised FY24 revenue, adj. EBITDA guidance and Thoma Bravo offered 620 pence/share in cash to take Darktrace private.
The acquisition is expected to complete during 3Q or 4Q of 2024. The cybersecurity unicorn has delivered revenue growth at scale coupled with solid profitability and cash flow generation.
I maintained a bullish view on the undervalued stock and initiated coverage of Darktrace on January 11, 2023, with a 497p price target as steep discount was unjustified.


Bright Day For Darktrace: Thoma Bravo Adds Cybersecurity Unicorn To Its Portfolio

<ul>
<li>Thoma Bravo offers to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/darktrace-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34466:1" rel="noopener">Darktrace (DARK LN)</a> for $7.75/share in cash, 19.6% premium, 44.3% premium to 3-month VWAP, 148% to IPO price, 6.2x EV/Fwd NTM Revenue, 26.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA.</li>
<li>Irrevocable undertakings total 14.4%. Darktrace's innovative technology aligns well with existing offerings in the cybersecurity ecosystem, making it a potential target for acquisition by a larger, established vendor.</li>
<li>I think the proposed price is fair and see the take-out as a strong result for Darktrace shareholders. I believe the deal will close. Gross spread is 2.3%. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Thoma Bravo offers to acquire Darktrace (DARK LN) for $7.75/share in cash, 19.6% premium, 44.3% premium to 3-month VWAP, 148% to IPO price, 6.2x EV/Fwd NTM Revenue, 26.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA.
Irrevocable undertakings total 14.4%. Darktrace's innovative technology aligns well with existing offerings in the cybersecurity ecosystem, making it a potential target for acquisition by a larger, established vendor.
I think the proposed price is fair and see the take-out as a strong result for Darktrace shareholders. I believe the deal will close. Gross spread is 2.3%. Long.



Thoma Bravo Agrees to Acquire Cybersecurity Player Darktrace

United Kingdom

Darktrace is a British cybersecurity company that applies artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to defend organizations against cyber threats across their digital estates, including cloud, email, network, and operational technologies. Its self-learning AI platform detects novel threats and provides autonomous response capabilities. Darktrace was established in 2013 and is headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom.

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Darktrace (DARK LN)

EQT/Keywords Studios: Lower Revised Offer

On June 27, Keywords received an updated (lower) cash offer of 2,450p/share from EQT, 66.7% premium, implied EV €2,405 million, 13.2x EV/fwd NTM...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Austal, West Japan Railway, PICC/PICC P&C

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Bright Day For Darktrace: Thoma Bravo Adds Cybersecurity Unicorn To Its Portfolio

British cybersecurity unicorn Darktrace agreed sale to PE firm Thoma Bravo for ~£4.3B or 620p/share. In my insight I discuss valuation analysis of...

Andrei Zakharov

Thoma Bravo Agrees to Acquire Cybersecurity Player Darktrace

PE firm Thoma Bravo offers to acquire Darktrace for $7.75/share, 19.6% premium. Irrevocable undertakings total 14.4%. Darktrace's innovative...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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