AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inventory growth slowed sharply to 8% QoQ after two quarters of 30%+ builds, easing concerns of accelerating balance-sheet expansion.</li>
<li>Margins recovered from the Q1 charge and remain structurally strong.</li>
<li>Accounts receivable rose to $38.5B, with ratio trends improving but absolute levels remaining elevated.</li>
</ul>


Inventory growth slowed sharply to 8% QoQ after two quarters of 30%+ builds, easing concerns of accelerating balance-sheet expansion.
Margins recovered from the Q1 charge and remain structurally strong.
Accounts receivable rose to $38.5B, with ratio trends improving but absolute levels remaining elevated.


NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

<ul>
<li>Inventory has been compounding at 30% sequentially, outpacing revenue growth in recent quarters.</li>
<li>Rising forward inventory coverage raises questions about whether the product is clearing end demand at the same pace it is shipped.</li>
<li>Accounts receivable, cash conversion, and warranty reserves may matter as much as the revenue number tonight.</li>
</ul>


Inventory has been compounding at 30% sequentially, outpacing revenue growth in recent quarters.
Rising forward inventory coverage raises questions about whether the product is clearing end demand at the same pace it is shipped.
Accounts receivable, cash conversion, and warranty reserves may matter as much as the revenue number tonight.


NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, Ascender Capital issued a <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000001.000178091.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PR Times release</a> raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Ascender, which first published its concerns <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?redeem=aHR0cHM6Ly8xZHJ2Lm1zL2IvYy83OWRiY2U2MzllMGVhMjY2L0lRQXFhaXItRGdQVFE3T21WVFlmZGVjREFWRHczbnM5TloyRmJqb2loamY2QThBP2U9TXA5djFk&amp;cid=79DBCE639E0EA266&amp;id=79DBCE639E0EA266%21sfe2a6a2a030e43d3b3a655361f75e703&amp;parId=79DBCE639E0EA266%21s52e69e76ff9946efbf1b4dc36d3cca83&amp;o=OneUp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on its website</a> on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.</li>
<li>Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.</li>
</ul>


Today, Ascender Capital issued a PR Times release raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP).
Ascender, which first published its concerns on its website on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.
Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.


MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY2,200, a 43.0% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>Mr Yuji Takashima (Chairman and CEO) will reinvest to take a 33.1% stake. The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>However, the sale process was lacking (no auction) and is light compared to peer multiples. Barring the emergence of an activist, this is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP) has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY2,200, a 43.0% premium to the last close. 
Mr Yuji Takashima (Chairman and CEO) will reinvest to take a 33.1% stake. The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
However, the sale process was lacking (no auction) and is light compared to peer multiples. Barring the emergence of an activist, this is a done deal. 


MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Hidden Risk for Apple? -- TSMC's Potential 2nm Capacity Bottlneck</li>
<li>Long/Short SK Vs. Nanya: AI Memory Leadership to Outperform Legacy DRAM’s Final Cyclical Peak</li>
<li>Himax (HIMX US, Long): Management Call Confirms 2026 Mass-Production Readiness; Increasing Forecasts </li>
</ul>


Hidden Risk for Apple? -- TSMC's Potential 2nm Capacity Bottlneck
Long/Short SK Vs. Nanya: AI Memory Leadership to Outperform Legacy DRAM’s Final Cyclical Peak
Himax (HIMX US, Long): Management Call Confirms 2026 Mass-Production Readiness; Increasing Forecasts 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the offer is light compared to peer...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

​Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

​Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the offer is light compared to peer...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

​Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.

Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...