Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. </li>
<li>AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).</li>
<li>On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. </li>
</ul>


Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. 
AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).
On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. 


Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last night, Maven <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260318221306/en/Maven-Publishes-Letter-on-Bain-Sponsored-Management-Buyout-Offer-for-MCJ---Highlighting-Significant-Undervaluation-and-Governance-Concerns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued a letter</a> regarding the unfair terms of the Bain-sponsored MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. Maven has a stake of close to 3%.</li>
<li>Largely in line with Ascender’s view, Maven highlights six issues with the MBO. Maven estimates the intrinsic value at JPY2,800. Most of Maven’s criticisms are valid.</li>
<li>Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to engage, and the timing is strange. </li>
</ul>


Last night, Maven issued a letter regarding the unfair terms of the Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). Maven has a stake of close to 3%.
Largely in line with Ascender’s view, Maven highlights six issues with the MBO. Maven estimates the intrinsic value at JPY2,800. Most of Maven’s criticisms are valid.
Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to engage, and the timing is strange. 


MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

<ul>
<li>Since announcing the offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>’s shares have consistently traded above the Bain-sponsored MBO offer of JPY2,200. The offer closes on 24 March. </li>
<li>On 16 February, Ascender Capital <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?redeem=aHR0cHM6Ly8xZHJ2Lm1zL2IvYy83OWRiY2U2MzllMGVhMjY2L0lRQXFhaXItRGdQVFE3T21WVFlmZGVjREFWRHczbnM5TloyRmJqb2loamY2QThBP2U9TXA5djFk&amp;cid=79DBCE639E0EA266&amp;id=79DBCE639E0EA266%21sfe2a6a2a030e43d3b3a655361f75e703&amp;parId=79DBCE639E0EA266%21s52e69e76ff9946efbf1b4dc36d3cca83&amp;o=OneUp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised concerns</a> about the process and sought better terms. However, Ascender has failed to increase its stake above the 5% substantial shareholder threshold. </li>
<li>This is a done deal, as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM record date has been set, and FMR has sold out.   </li>
</ul>


Since announcing the offer, MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)’s shares have consistently traded above the Bain-sponsored MBO offer of JPY2,200. The offer closes on 24 March. 
On 16 February, Ascender Capital raised concerns about the process and sought better terms. However, Ascender has failed to increase its stake above the 5% substantial shareholder threshold. 
This is a done deal, as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM record date has been set, and FMR has sold out.   


MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.</li>
<li>HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.</li>
<li>ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.</li>
</ul>


Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.
HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.
ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.


Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.</li>
<li>Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.</li>
<li>CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.
Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.
CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.


Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...

Nicolas Baratte

MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to entertain...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

Shares trade above terms, but this is a done deal as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM...

Arun George

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

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Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

​Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...

Nicolas Baratte

MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to entertain...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

Shares trade above terms, but this is a done deal as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM...

Arun George

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

​Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...