IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> announced a preconditional tender offer from KKR at JPY4,750 per share, a 4.7% discount to the last close but an 81.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, which resulted from an auction, is above the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. The offer is attractive compared to long-term historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>While Oasis and Kowa’s irrevocables have a competing proposal clause, a competing bid is unlikely. This is a done deal, with the tender expected to commence in early October. </li>
</ul>



Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from KKR at JPY4,750 per share, a 4.7% discount to the last close but an 81.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, which resulted from an auction, is above the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. The offer is attractive compared to long-term historical trading ranges. 
While Oasis and Kowa’s irrevocables have a competing proposal clause, a competing bid is unlikely. This is a done deal, with the tender expected to commence in early October. 


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): KKR’s Takeunder Offer a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>On 19 December, Bloomberg reported that KKR has emerged as a frontrunner to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a>, but “the tender offer price may be lower than the current price.”</li>
<li>Since the first Bloomberg article on 27 May, Taiyo’s shares are up 84% vs. the median peers’ shares, which are up 62%. Therefore, the shares reflect some takeover premium.   </li>
<li>Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close.</li>
</ul>


On 19 December, Bloomberg reported that KKR has emerged as a frontrunner to privatise Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), but “the tender offer price may be lower than the current price.”
Since the first Bloomberg article on 27 May, Taiyo’s shares are up 84% vs. the median peers’ shares, which are up 62%. Therefore, the shares reflect some takeover premium.   
Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>MBK has made a legally binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>. Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.</li>
<li>Given the share price decline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.</li>
</ul>


MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.

Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU)</a>and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> possibly in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amara-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2692:1" rel="noopener">Amara Holdings (AMA SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for MAC Copper (MAC AU)and  SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP). Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) possibly in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on: HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)/Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), and Amara Holdings (AMA SP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a>, and recently an activist target itself. </li>
<li>Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo <a href="https://www.taiyo-hd.co.jp/_cms/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/en20250528_10.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a>, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.</li>
<li>Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. </li>
</ul>



Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 


[Japan Activism/M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626) Now an MBO Target? KKR and One More Bidding

Japan

DIC Corp. is a chemical company that specializes in printing inks, organic pigments, and thermosetting resins.  The Company also manufactures polymers, specialty plastics and compounds, and others which include building materials, pressure-sensitive adhesives materials, and biochemicals.

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Dic Corp (4631 JP)

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): KKR’s Takeunder Offer a Done Deal

Despite being below the last close, the offer is above the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. Irrevocables and the significant premium to the...

Arun George

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?

Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close....

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Activism/M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626) Now an MBO Target? KKR and One More Bidding

Bloomberg today reported that Taiyo Holdings had received two acquisition proposals. The stock is preparing for an AGM fight which is, as yet, not...

Travis Lundy

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