Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Pres. Biden's disastrous debate performance (in which he looked senile and cognitively incapacitated) has led Democrats to call on him to step aside in favour of an alternate Democrat nominee.</li>
<li>In 1968, LBJ stepped aside before most primaries, and VP Humphrey won nomination at the convention. He lost the general mainly because third party candidate Wallace ate into Democrat votes. </li>
<li>Trump landslide would be inflationary (because of 10% tariffs on all imports, more on China), plus the embarrassment of having a convicted felon as president. Near-term negative for US. </li>
</ul>


Pres. Biden's disastrous debate performance (in which he looked senile and cognitively incapacitated) has led Democrats to call on him to step aside in favour of an alternate Democrat nominee.
In 1968, LBJ stepped aside before most primaries, and VP Humphrey won nomination at the convention. He lost the general mainly because third party candidate Wallace ate into Democrat votes. 
Trump landslide would be inflationary (because of 10% tariffs on all imports, more on China), plus the embarrassment of having a convicted felon as president. Near-term negative for US. 


Biden's Catastrophic Debate Likely to Lead to 1968-Repeat; Can It End Differently?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). </li>
<li>Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. </li>
<li>Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  </li>
</ul>


FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). 
Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. 
Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  


US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JPMorgan's new fund focuses on obesity treatments, especially popular yet scarce GLP-1 drugs</li>
<li>Chinese automakers sold more cars than US brands, marking a significant market shift</li>
<li>Tesla shares rise as Musk anticipates shareholder approval of his controversial $56 billion pay package</li>
</ul>


JPMorgan's new fund focuses on obesity treatments, especially popular yet scarce GLP-1 drugs
Chinese automakers sold more cars than US brands, marking a significant market shift
Tesla shares rise as Musk anticipates shareholder approval of his controversial $56 billion pay package


#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan's $500M Biotech Fund, China's Car Sales, Tesla's Pay Package Approval

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Biden's Catastrophic Debate Likely to Lead to 1968-Repeat; Can It End Differently?

Biden's cognitively-challenged debate performance increases the probability of a Trump landslide, with 10% import tariffs disrupting the world...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan's $500M Biotech Fund, China's Car Sales, Tesla's Pay Package Approval

JPMorgan launches fund for obesity treatments, Chinese automakers outsell US brands, Tesla shares climb on Musk's pay package anticipation.

Nimish Maheshwari

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Biden's Catastrophic Debate Likely to Lead to 1968-Repeat; Can It End Differently?

Biden's cognitively-challenged debate performance increases the probability of a Trump landslide, with 10% import tariffs disrupting the world...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. ​Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan's $500M Biotech Fund, China's Car Sales, Tesla's Pay Package Approval

​JPMorgan launches fund for obesity treatments, Chinese automakers outsell US brands, Tesla shares climb on Musk's pay package anticipation.

Nimish Maheshwari

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

JPMorgan launches fund for obesity treatments, Chinese automakers outsell US brands, Tesla shares climb on Musk's pay package anticipation.