Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China continues losing US market share at 1pp+ per year since Mar’18 (when its share was 21.8%); in the year to Sep’23, China’s share of US imports declined to 14%. </li>
<li>US imports have declined YoY in 10 of the past 11 months. Although we expect the US to go into recession this quarter and next, US imports have already troughed.                </li>
<li>Although the US economy will weaken (as PCE is slowed by student-loan repayments, and fiscal pullback begins), US imports should start rebounding in Q1CY24, boosting India and ASEAN, not China. </li>
</ul>


China continues losing US market share at 1pp+ per year since Mar’18 (when its share was 21.8%); in the year to Sep’23, China’s share of US imports declined to 14%. 
US imports have declined YoY in 10 of the past 11 months. Although we expect the US to go into recession this quarter and next, US imports have already troughed.                
Although the US economy will weaken (as PCE is slowed by student-loan repayments, and fiscal pullback begins), US imports should start rebounding in Q1CY24, boosting India and ASEAN, not China. 


US Recession Still Likely but Imports to Rebound Sooner, Benefiting India-ASEAN

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. </li>
<li>Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.</li>
<li>SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.</li>
</ul>


US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. 
Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.
SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.


[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> due to the stepwise addition.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) due to the stepwise addition.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

US Recession Still Likely but Imports to Rebound Sooner, Benefiting India-ASEAN

US imports fell in 10 of the last 11 months. While PCE and fiscal pullback will push US economy into recession, US imports should rebound from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Each Monday, we take stock of key news in markets across major economies & firms. US equity markets rallied strongly while commodity majors...

Mint Finance

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes in March + Fast Retailing capping. Stepwise inclusion of Nitori too. Socionext could be an add if it splits its stock. As...

Brian Freitas