Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. </li>
<li>Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. </li>
</ul>


We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. 
Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. 
The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. 


US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.</li>
<li>We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.</li>
<li>We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC</li>
</ul>


The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC


Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China continues losing US market share at 1pp+ per year since Mar’18 (when its share was 21.8%); in the year to Sep’23, China’s share of US imports declined to 14%. </li>
<li>US imports have declined YoY in 10 of the past 11 months. Although we expect the US to go into recession this quarter and next, US imports have already troughed.                </li>
<li>Although the US economy will weaken (as PCE is slowed by student-loan repayments, and fiscal pullback begins), US imports should start rebounding in Q1CY24, boosting India and ASEAN, not China. </li>
</ul>


China continues losing US market share at 1pp+ per year since Mar’18 (when its share was 21.8%); in the year to Sep’23, China’s share of US imports declined to 14%. 
US imports have declined YoY in 10 of the past 11 months. Although we expect the US to go into recession this quarter and next, US imports have already troughed.                
Although the US economy will weaken (as PCE is slowed by student-loan repayments, and fiscal pullback begins), US imports should start rebounding in Q1CY24, boosting India and ASEAN, not China. 


US Recession Still Likely but Imports to Rebound Sooner, Benefiting India-ASEAN

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. </li>
<li>Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.</li>
<li>SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.</li>
</ul>


US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. 
Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.
SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.


[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

US Recession Still Likely but Imports to Rebound Sooner, Benefiting India-ASEAN

US imports fell in 10 of the last 11 months. While PCE and fiscal pullback will push US economy into recession, US imports should rebound from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Each Monday, we take stock of key news in markets across major economies & firms. US equity markets rallied strongly while commodity majors...

Mint Finance