Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally</li>
<li>Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets</li>
<li>US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.</li>
</ul>


In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally
Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets
US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.


Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.</li>
<li>In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.</li>
<li>With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.</li>
</ul>


What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.
In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.
With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.


Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s...

Steno Research

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

US averts recession before Q4CY23, as Bidenomics is buoying investment. Strong USD helped in H1 but will be a drag in H2CY23. Fiscal spending reins...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and...

Steno Research