Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sieyuan Electric, a power equipment manufacturer, is seeking an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: switchgear, transformers and protection and automation.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Sieyuan Electric, a power equipment manufacturer, is seeking an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: switchgear, transformers and protection and automation.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on A-H premium.


Sieyuan Electric (思源电气) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Market position: Delta is a leading AI data-center PSU supplier, with estimated 50%+ share, giving it direct exposure as AI racks require more power per rack.</li>
<li>
Product cycle: PSU upgrades from 5.5kW to 12kW and 30-36kW drive higher ASP per watt, more power-shelf content and margin expansion.</li>
<li>
Valuation: Our base case is consensus PSU growth; the upside case where Delta captures DC/DC and 800VDC power-rack content content can lead to &lt;100% upside over near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Market position: Delta is a leading AI data-center PSU supplier, with estimated 50%+ share, giving it direct exposure as AI racks require more power per rack.

Product cycle: PSU upgrades from 5.5kW to 12kW and 30-36kW drive higher ASP per watt, more power-shelf content and margin expansion.

Valuation: Our base case is consensus PSU growth; the upside case where Delta captures DC/DC and 800VDC power-rack content content can lead to &lt;100% upside over near to medium term.


Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - AI Power Architecture Upgrade

United States

Eaton Corporation PLC manufactures engineered products for the industrial, vehicle, construction, commercial, and aerospace markets. The Company offers products including hydraulic products and fluid connectors, electrical power distribution and control equipment, truck drivetrain systems, engine components, and a wide variety of controls. Eaton conducts business in Dublin, Ireland.

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Eaton Corp Plc (ETN US)

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

Sieyuan Electric (思源电气) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Sieyuan Electric is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide early valuation...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - AI Power Architecture Upgrade

Delta leads AI data-center PSUs with 50%+ share; Nvidia’s power-architecture upgrade drives PSU ASP/mix expansion, while 800VDC power racks create...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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