Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);</li>
<li>Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.</li>
<li>Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.</li>
</ul>


We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);
Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.
Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.


Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI rallied 6.6% last week as U.S.-Iran tensions kept a geopolitical premium embedded, before reversing on 24/Aug as markets priced in formally announced sanctions.</li>
<li>Options positioning turned cautiously constructive as falling implied volatility unwound the risk premium, while energy ETF gains stayed concentrated in upstream names over utilities.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies posted strong Q2 cash generation on higher prices and refining margins, strengthening its balance sheet while reshaping its portfolio toward LNG, power and reduced Russia exposure.</li>
</ul>


WTI rallied 6.6% last week as U.S.-Iran tensions kept a geopolitical premium embedded, before reversing on 24/Aug as markets priced in formally announced sanctions.
Options positioning turned cautiously constructive as falling implied volatility unwound the risk premium, while energy ETF gains stayed concentrated in upstream names over utilities.
TotalEnergies posted strong Q2 cash generation on higher prices and refining margins, strengthening its balance sheet while reshaping its portfolio toward LNG, power and reduced Russia exposure.


Energy Weekly (W/E 21/Aug): WTI Rallies on Hormuz, Skew Eases, TotalEnergies Builds Cash

VanEck Oil Services ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control</li>
<li>Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control
Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.


Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

<ul>
<li>WTI swung daily as shifting U.S.-Iran signals repeatedly changed the risk premium, while a record inventory build briefly pressured prices before renewed sanctions fears.</li>
<li>WTI options volatility fell while managed money added longs and cut shorts, pointing to improving bullish conviction despite continued demand for downside protection.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs attracted broad inflows, while VLO offered the cleanest exposure to a distillate-led refining rally despite a sharp valuation re-rating.</li>
</ul>


WTI swung daily as shifting U.S.-Iran signals repeatedly changed the risk premium, while a record inventory build briefly pressured prices before renewed sanctions fears.
WTI options volatility fell while managed money added longs and cut shorts, pointing to improving bullish conviction despite continued demand for downside protection.
Energy ETFs attracted broad inflows, while VLO offered the cleanest exposure to a distillate-led refining rally despite a sharp valuation re-rating.


Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

<ul>
<li>WTI fell 7.7% as Hormuz de-escalation hopes faded, while easing IV and weaker speculative positioning pointed to a more cautious oil market.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs broadly tracked crude lower, with XOP and IXC among the biggest laggards, while utilities proved more resilient amid the broader risk-off move.</li>
<li>Occidental delivered its strongest free-cash-flow quarter since 2022, beating earnings expectations and raising its dividend as debt continued to fall.</li>
</ul>


WTI fell 7.7% as Hormuz de-escalation hopes faded, while easing IV and weaker speculative positioning pointed to a more cautious oil market.
Energy ETFs broadly tracked crude lower, with XOP and IXC among the biggest laggards, while utilities proved more resilient amid the broader risk-off move.
Occidental delivered its strongest free-cash-flow quarter since 2022, beating earnings expectations and raising its dividend as debt continued to fall.


Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Downgrading Technology $XLK $SOXX $SMH; Upgrading Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names; Outside of A.I. areas,...

Vermilion Research

Energy Weekly (W/E 21/Aug): WTI Rallies on Hormuz, Skew Eases, TotalEnergies Builds Cash

WTI's Hormuz-driven rally is losing urgency as options markets unwind their risk premium, even as TotalEnergies shows how majors are turning strong...

Mint Finance

Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

Energy $XLE $OIH $IEO Improving; Levels to Watch in A.I. and Technology Areas $CHAT $SOXX $MTUM $DRAM. Still bullish $SPX, but some reason for...

Vermilion Research

Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

WTI remains caught between a volatile geopolitical premium and improving speculative positioning, while strong distillate margins keep Valero’s...

Mint Finance

Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Downgrading Technology $XLK $SOXX $SMH; Upgrading Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names; Outside of A.I. areas,...

Vermilion Research

Energy Weekly (W/E 21/Aug): WTI Rallies on Hormuz, Skew Eases, TotalEnergies Builds Cash

WTI's Hormuz-driven rally is losing urgency as options markets unwind their risk premium, even as TotalEnergies shows how majors are turning strong...

Mint Finance

Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

Energy $XLE $OIH $IEO Improving; Levels to Watch in A.I. and Technology Areas $CHAT $SOXX $MTUM $DRAM. Still bullish $SPX, but some reason for...

Vermilion Research

Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

WTI remains caught between a volatile geopolitical premium and improving speculative positioning, while strong distillate margins keep Valero’s...

Mint Finance

Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

​Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...

Mint Finance

Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...