Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.
TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.</li>
<li>Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.</li>
<li>Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.
Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.
Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.</li>
<li>Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.
Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.
ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).</li>
<li>JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.</li>
<li>Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.</li>
</ul>


Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.


[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

​TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

​Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

​ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

​Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...