Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul><li>Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.</li><li>While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.</li><li>Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.</li></ul>

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.</li>
<li>Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.</li>
<li>The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.</li>
</ul>


Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.


Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The recent threats of heavy tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be aimed at pressuring those governments to address U.S. concerns regarding immigration and drug enforcement.</li><li>While it’s unlikely these tariffs will materialize, the threat serves as a strong incentive for both countries to take action on closing the border and curbing the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. Trump has effectively imposed a hard deadline of January 20th for these efforts, signaling a stark departure from the Biden administration’s earlier carrot-based approach, which focused on incentivizing Mexico with financial support to manage border issues.</li><li>In contrast, Trump is clearly opting for the stick over the carrot.</li></ul>

The recent threats of heavy tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be aimed at pressuring those governments to address U.S. concerns regarding immigration and drug enforcement.While it’s unlikely these tariffs will materialize, the threat serves as a strong incentive for both countries to take action on closing the border and curbing the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. Trump has effectively imposed a hard deadline of January 20th for these efforts, signaling a stark departure from the Biden administration’s earlier carrot-based approach, which focused on incentivizing Mexico with financial support to manage border issues.In contrast, Trump is clearly opting for the stick over the carrot.

The Drill: Fade the tough Trump tariff talks

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and today, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and today, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

The Drill: Fade the tough Trump tariff talks

The recent threats of heavy tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be aimed at pressuring those governments to address U.S. concerns regarding...

Steno Research

Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!

Happy Friday!Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

​US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

The Drill: Fade the tough Trump tariff talks

The recent threats of heavy tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be aimed at pressuring those governments to address U.S. concerns regarding...

Steno Research

Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!

Happy Friday!Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...