Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.</li>
<li>Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.</li>
<li>With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.


Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.</li>
<li>Schlumberger's OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.</li>
<li>For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.
Schlumberger's OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1

<ul>
<li>Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.</li>
<li>Halliburton has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.</li>
<li>Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
Halliburton has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.


[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.</li>
<li>SLB has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.</li>
<li>Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
SLB has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.


[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

Price Gauge
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1

Schlumberger's Q1 earnings expected to decline due to low oil prices, with neutral sentiment and high volatility in options market for 25/Apr expiry.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

Schlumberger's Q1 2025 revenue and EPS expected to decline, but "Strong Buy" consensus remains due to global presence and strong cash flow despite...

Mint Finance

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

​Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1

​Schlumberger's Q1 earnings expected to decline due to low oil prices, with neutral sentiment and high volatility in options market for 25/Apr expiry.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

​Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

​Schlumberger's Q1 2025 revenue and EPS expected to decline, but "Strong Buy" consensus remains due to global presence and strong cash flow despite...

Mint Finance

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.

Schlumberger's Q1 earnings expected to decline due to low oil prices, with neutral sentiment and high volatility in options market for 25/Apr expiry.

Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...

Schlumberger's Q1 2025 revenue and EPS expected to decline, but "Strong Buy" consensus remains due to global presence and strong cash flow despite...