Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).</li>
<li>The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.</li>
<li>Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish</li>
</ul>


Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).</li>
<li>Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.</li>
</ul>


Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.


Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

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Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Erie Indemnity Company Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Erie Indemnity's unique and durable business model as the attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange provides a stable, fee-based revenue stream tied directly to the Exchange's premium growth.</li>
 <li>The company exhibits a stellar long-term growth track record, with 3-year and 5-year CAGRs for Net Income at 26.32% and 13.64% respectively, and a similarly strong EPS growth, reflecting robust operational performance and profitability.</li>
 <li>Valuation appears expensive, with a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 36.18 and a Price-to-Book ratio of 9.66, suggesting the market has priced in its high quality and consistent growth, which may limit near-term upside for new investors.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Erie Indemnity's unique and durable business model as the attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange provides a stable, fee-based revenue stream tied directly to the Exchange's premium growth.
  The company exhibits a stellar long-term growth track record, with 3-year and 5-year CAGRs for Net Income at 26.32% and 13.64% respectively, and a similarly strong EPS growth, reflecting robust operational performance and profitability.
  Valuation appears expensive, with a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 36.18 and a Price-to-Book ratio of 9.66, suggesting the market has priced in its high quality and consistent growth, which may limit near-term upside for new investors.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Erie Indemnity Company Cl A (ERIE US) - Sep 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the S&amp;P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P400, S&amp;P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.</li>
<li>The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices</li>
<li>In the S&amp;P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the S&amp;P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P400, S&amp;P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.
The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices
In the S&amp;P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.


S&P 500/400/600 Changes - DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted

United States

Erie Indemnity Company is the management company for the Erie Insurance Exchange. The Company is also involved in the property and casualty insurance business through its wholly-owned subsidiaries and through its management of Flagship City Insurance Company. Erie Indemnity sells auto, home, life and business insurance in the United States.

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Erie Indemnity Company Cl A (ERIE US)

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate $XLRE $VNQ and Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals as $SPX, $COMP Take a Pause;...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials $XLF to Market Weight; The Shift to Value Continues. Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the $SPX,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

Primer: Erie Indemnity Company Cl A (ERIE US) - Sep 2025

Erie Indemnity's unique and durable business model as the attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange provides a stable, fee-based revenue...

αSK Primers

S&P 500/400/600 Changes - DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted

The S and P Index Committee announced its September changes to the major indices on Friday along with changes to the Sector indices which means...

Travis Lundy

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