Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>German 2025 draft budget announcement includes sharp increase in federal deficit, driven by infrastructure and defense spending commitments</li><li>Analysts predict slippages in government investment delivery, with government deficit expected to stay around 3.1% of GDP for 2025</li><li>NATO summit agreement to target 5% defense spending as a share of GDP by 2035 may have implications for fiscal and issuance dynamics in Europe.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

German 2025 draft budget announcement includes sharp increase in federal deficit, driven by infrastructure and defense spending commitmentsAnalysts predict slippages in government investment delivery, with government deficit expected to stay around 3.1% of GDP for 2025NATO summit agreement to target 5% defense spending as a share of GDP by 2035 may have implications for fiscal and issuance dynamics in Europe.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates markets roundup: German fiscal, NATO meeting, carry themes, de-dolla...

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul><li>Introduction of David as a special guest and first client of Harmonic Insights</li><li>Discussion on market dynamics, including non-US equities, Bitcoin, and gold</li><li>Focus on oil's volatility, with a 9% drop in the last five days and recent events impacting Bitcoin</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Introduction of David as a special guest and first client of Harmonic InsightsDiscussion on market dynamics, including non-US equities, Bitcoin, and goldFocus on oil's volatility, with a 9% drop in the last five days and recent events impacting BitcoinThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

"The Data Bottleneck in Quant Finance — and How to Break It" With David Forino, CTO of Quanted

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.</li><li>The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.</li><li>The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>U.S. inflation expected to accelerate over the next few months, with core inflation forecasted to rise to 3.8% by December</li><li>Trade policy and geopolitical risks, such as the potential for oil prices to spike, are factors supporting front end tips breakevens</li><li>Euro area inflation data shows softening trend, with core inflation falling to 2.3% in May, impacted by factors like timing of Easter holidays</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

U.S. inflation expected to accelerate over the next few months, with core inflation forecasted to rise to 3.8% by DecemberTrade policy and geopolitical risks, such as the potential for oil prices to spike, are factors supporting front end tips breakevensEuro area inflation data shows softening trend, with core inflation falling to 2.3% in May, impacted by factors like timing of Easter holidaysThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be needed</li><li>The Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in January</li><li>The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on track</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be neededThe Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in JanuaryThe BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on trackContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Global Rates: European rates markets roundup: German fiscal, NATO meeting, carry themes, de-dolla...

German 2025 draft budget includes sharp increase in federal deficit, leading to implications for bond issuance, economist expectations for...

At Any Rate

"The Data Bottleneck in Quant Finance — and How to Break It" With David Forino, CTO of Quanted

Harmonic Insights discusses market journey with special guest, highlighting recent news, significant market moves, and market dynamics, emphasizing...

William Mann

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.

Scotiabank

Global Rates: Monthly Inflation Outlook

May CPI in the U.S. was weak, but tariffs may still impact inflation, leading to potential outperformance in front end tips breakevens due to...

At Any Rate

Mizuho Dealer's Eye (Feb, 2025)

The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative

Mizuho

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