Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC claimed at its last meeting that 'inflation remains elevated', although core PCE and core CPI inflation were BOTH at 4-year lows in Apr'25, despite the Trump tariffs. </li>
<li>FOMC minutes show members expressing fears about the prospect of both high inflation and high unemployment, NEITHER of which has yet actually transpired. Politics is clouding the Fed's policymaking ability. </li>
<li>Apr'25 was the first month with the tariffs, yet inflation FELL. M2 growth is just 4.25%YoY (Apr'25), so inflation is likely to stay tame. A Jun'25 rate cut is due. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC claimed at its last meeting that 'inflation remains elevated', although core PCE and core CPI inflation were BOTH at 4-year lows in Apr'25, despite the Trump tariffs. 
FOMC minutes show members expressing fears about the prospect of both high inflation and high unemployment, NEITHER of which has yet actually transpired. Politics is clouding the Fed's policymaking ability. 
Apr'25 was the first month with the tariffs, yet inflation FELL. M2 growth is just 4.25%YoY (Apr'25), so inflation is likely to stay tame. A Jun'25 rate cut is due. 


US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.</li><li>IMM-based Non-Commercial (speculative) traders cut net USD shorts by a sizeable USD4.2bn on aggregate in the week through May 20th, extending the USD short-covering trend seen in the prior week’s data.</li><li>Net speculative USD shorts were pinned back to USD12.3bn. Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) accounts paring their significant net USD shorts by USD1.5bn while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cut modest USD shorts in half to just USD1.8bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.IMM-based Non-Commercial (speculative) traders cut net USD shorts by a sizeable USD4.2bn on aggregate in the week through May 20th, extending the USD short-covering trend seen in the prior week’s data.Net speculative USD shorts were pinned back to USD12.3bn. Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) accounts paring their significant net USD shorts by USD1.5bn while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cut modest USD shorts in half to just USD1.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Rises Sharply

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Yield steepenings may be linked to fears of fiscal profligacy and concerns of inflation expectations</li><li>US Exceptionalism theme unraveling, dollar facing downward pressure</li><li>US tax bill moving through House, expected to have modest stimulative economic impact</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Yield steepenings may be linked to fears of fiscal profligacy and concerns of inflation expectationsUS Exceptionalism theme unraveling, dollar facing downward pressureUS tax bill moving through House, expected to have modest stimulative economic impactThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officials</li><li>The speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like gold</li><li>The discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officialsThe speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like goldThe discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Morning from Europe.</li><li>Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.</li><li>On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe.Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Rises Sharply

Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.

Scotiabank

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful

Economists discuss concerns over fiscal profligacy and inflation expectations, the impact of the US tax bill, and upcoming key data points to watch.

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI

Crystal played a key role in organizing an event at the Coronado Club where Dr. Adam Back spoke on the topic of bitcoin energy and AI, as Lisa and...

William Mann

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Morning from Europe. Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

​FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Rises Sharply

Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.

Scotiabank

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful

Economists discuss concerns over fiscal profligacy and inflation expectations, the impact of the US tax bill, and upcoming key data points to watch.

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI

Crystal played a key role in organizing an event at the Coronado Club where Dr. Adam Back spoke on the topic of bitcoin energy and AI, as Lisa and...

William Mann

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Morning from Europe. Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by...

Steno Research

FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...