Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial market reaction has probably been more muted than many anticipated.</li><li>Bond yields ticked slightly higher, gold softened, and there were modest tailwinds for regions and countries previously hammered by tariff exposure following yesterday’s “deal” in Geneva.</li><li>But beneath the surface, several dynamics warrant a closer look.</li></ul>

On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial market reaction has probably been more muted than many anticipated.Bond yields ticked slightly higher, gold softened, and there were modest tailwinds for regions and countries previously hammered by tariff exposure following yesterday’s “deal” in Geneva.But beneath the surface, several dynamics warrant a closer look.

Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Episode 19 of New Barbarians podcast with guest Connor Farley, CEO of Trivia</li><li>Markets trading sideways in May after strong April</li><li>Market volatility driven by headlines, particularly on tariff talks with China</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 19 of New Barbarians podcast with guest Connor Farley, CEO of TriviaMarkets trading sideways in May after strong AprilMarket volatility driven by headlines, particularly on tariff talks with ChinaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AQR DNA in a Digital World: Systematic Edge with Connor Farley - The New Barbarians Episode #019

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.</li><li>The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

<ul><li>Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade policy.</li><li>However, quietly—but increasingly noticeably—the administration is beginning to make progress on a few of the core objectives outlined in the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This accord seeks to leverage the U.S. defense umbrella to compel major trade partners to accept:a weaker USD, and increased purchases of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) in exchange for continued security guarantees—  with tariffs serving as the primary tool in this negotiation strategy.</li><li>While this approach has clearly sparked outrage globally—and while one can certainly question the strategic coherence and execution—the first signs are emerging that suggest it might be achieving some of its intended effects.</li></ul>

Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade policy.However, quietly—but increasingly noticeably—the administration is beginning to make progress on a few of the core objectives outlined in the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This accord seeks to leverage the U.S. defense umbrella to compel major trade partners to accept:a weaker USD, and increased purchases of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) in exchange for continued security guarantees—  with tariffs serving as the primary tool in this negotiation strategy.While this approach has clearly sparked outrage globally—and while one can certainly question the strategic coherence and execution—the first signs are emerging that suggest it might be achieving some of its intended effects.

Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Since the election of the new US administration in November last year volatility in the XCCY market has increased significantly.</li><li>Despite increased volatility, the trend has been for higher EUR/USD XCCY basis, i.e., EUR getting more expensive relative to USD.</li><li>The upwards trend can be explained by various factors, but the overarching factor is the prolonged period with funding arbitrage in USD for issuers with access to the US primary market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since the election of the new US administration in November last year volatility in the XCCY market has increased significantly.Despite increased volatility, the trend has been for higher EUR/USD XCCY basis, i.e., EUR getting more expensive relative to USD.The upwards trend can be explained by various factors, but the overarching factor is the prolonged period with funding arbitrage in USD for issuers with access to the US primary market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial...

Steno Research

AQR DNA in a Digital World: Systematic Edge with Connor Farley - The New Barbarians Episode #019

In episode 19 of New Barbarians podcast, markets are trading sideways in May after a good April, with hedge fund returns generally good and quant...

William Mann

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?

Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade...

Steno Research

Nordea XCCY publication: Q2-2025

Since the election of the new US administration in November last year volatility in the XCCY market has increased significantly.

Nordea

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