External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.</li><li>Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.</li><li>Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Monday!Each week, we collect the most important events in the week ahead and provide you with our direction going into them.</li><li>Enjoy!Monday – ISM ManufacturingThe ISM Manufacturing data is due this afternoon, with consensus expecting a rebound from last month’s report, forecasting a figure of 47.6. After reviewing our model library, we see substantial risk/reward in betting on an upward surprise in manufacturing data.</li><li>For instance, our regional PMI model—which uses regional manufacturing prints as inputs—indicates a material increase in the manufacturing PMI today.</li></ul>

Happy Monday!Each week, we collect the most important events in the week ahead and provide you with our direction going into them.Enjoy!Monday – ISM ManufacturingThe ISM Manufacturing data is due this afternoon, with consensus expecting a rebound from last month’s report, forecasting a figure of 47.6. After reviewing our model library, we see substantial risk/reward in betting on an upward surprise in manufacturing data.For instance, our regional PMI model—which uses regional manufacturing prints as inputs—indicates a material increase in the manufacturing PMI today.

The Week at a Glance: Manufacturing Rebound, Fed Liquidity Signals & Oil’s Fragile Balance

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Trump announced potential tariff policies on social media targeting Canada and Mexico, leading to a weakening in both currencies.</li><li>Trump appointed key members to his economic team, setting the tone for his administration's policies.</li><li>Markets are anticipating the Fed meeting in December, with expectations of a dovish hold and strong labor market reports.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Trump announced potential tariff policies on social media targeting Canada and Mexico, leading to a weakening in both currencies.Trump appointed key members to his economic team, setting the tone for his administration's policies.Markets are anticipating the Fed meeting in December, with expectations of a dovish hold and strong labor market reports.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.</li><li>We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.</li><li>The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

<ul><li>Main point: The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus EUR/GBP rates, higher USD vs. peers, and higher US equity returns compared to Europe/Asia.</li><li>The risk/reward of taking the opposite bet is starting to look appetizing.</li><li>We have been looking at the explosive increase in US equity positioning for a while, as multiple indicators show that equities are reaching stretched points positioning-wise — CFTC positioning among asset managers skyrocketing, our own data showing increased positioning in US vs. the rest of the world, and surveys starting to indicate that everyone is expecting equities to crawl higher.</li></ul>

Main point: The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus EUR/GBP rates, higher USD vs. peers, and higher US equity returns compared to Europe/Asia.The risk/reward of taking the opposite bet is starting to look appetizing.We have been looking at the explosive increase in US equity positioning for a while, as multiple indicators show that equities are reaching stretched points positioning-wise — CFTC positioning among asset managers skyrocketing, our own data showing increased positioning in US vs. the rest of the world, and surveys starting to indicate that everyone is expecting equities to crawl higher.

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.

Scotiabank

The Week at a Glance: Manufacturing Rebound, Fed Liquidity Signals & Oil’s Fragile Balance

Happy Monday!Each week, we collect the most important events in the week ahead and provide you with our direction going into them. Enjoy!Monday –...

Steno Research

The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For

President Trump announces potential tariff policies on social media, appoints Scott Besant as Treasury Secretary, leading to market volatility and...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point. The following is an...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!

Main point:The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus...

Steno Research

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