Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hope you had a great weekend! Here’s this week’s sneak peek into my thoughts on liquidity trends and how they influence my approach to risk-taking.</li>
<li>Watching the alt-season unfold from an incredibly wet and windy Copenhagen this weekend has been quite bizarre.</li>
<li>The weather outside certainly doesn’t bring out my animal spirits, but there’s a certain smell of 2021 in the air in financial markets—especially if central banks decide to print more into this scenario.</li>
</ul>


Hope you had a great weekend! Here’s this week’s sneak peek into my thoughts on liquidity trends and how they influence my approach to risk-taking.
Watching the alt-season unfold from an incredibly wet and windy Copenhagen this weekend has been quite bizarre.
The weather outside certainly doesn’t bring out my animal spirits, but there’s a certain smell of 2021 in the air in financial markets—especially if central banks decide to print more into this scenario.


Steno Signals #127 – We need a bit of bad news for liquidity to improve

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.</li><li>Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. </li><li>At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.</li><li>CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly C FTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Steaadies After Election

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies</li><li>Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro</li><li>Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policiesPossibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in EuroRecommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.</li><li>That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.</li><li>This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Steno Signals #127 – We need a bit of bad news for liquidity to improve

Hope you had a great weekend! Here’s this week’s sneak peek into my thoughts on liquidity trends and how they influence my approach to...

Steno Research

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.

BRI Danareksa Research

Weekly C FTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Steaadies After Election

Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net...

Scotiabank

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

The Euro and CNY saw significant movements this week, with the PBOC setting a line in the sand for the CNY, leading to a potential shift in the...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

Happy Sunday, everyone!If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true. That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon...

Steno Research

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