External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.</li><li>Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.</li>
<li>His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.</li>
<li>Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.
His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.
Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.


The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.</li><li>Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.</li><li>This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rates and Equities: Fed may pause and further cut rates, impacting equities down the line</li>
<li>Bitcoin's Impact: MicroStrategy adding Bitcoin to its capital structure driving positive skew impact on equity</li>
<li>Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin and gold showing more upside potential volatility compared to traditional assets like equities and bonds</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Rates and Equities: Fed may pause and further cut rates, impacting equities down the line
Bitcoin's Impact: MicroStrategy adding Bitcoin to its capital structure driving positive skew impact on equity
Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin and gold showing more upside potential volatility compared to traditional assets like equities and bonds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Rate Volatility: Key to Market Trends | The New Barbarians Podcast - #003

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets.</li><li>In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for lower bond yields, which slightly wrongfooted our risk asset view heading into Christmas—after being on a remarkable roll for several months.</li><li>We remain puzzled by the resilience of bond yields (and the USD) despite softer economic surprises and flattening inflation expectations.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets.In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for lower bond yields, which slightly wrongfooted our risk asset view heading into Christmas—after being on a remarkable roll for several months.We remain puzzled by the resilience of bond yields (and the USD) despite softer economic surprises and flattening inflation expectations.

Steno Signals #179: A handful of trades for 2025

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Combined net long USD positioning rose to just over USD59bn, the highest since May 2019. USD positioning/sentiment continues to look extended.

Scotiabank

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them. His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week!I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience...

Steno Research

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Rate Volatility: Key to Market Trends | The New Barbarians Podcast - #003

Insights and outlooks for 2025 in economics, markets, and digital assets, including Bitcoin, with projections on market volatility, industry...

William Mann

Steno Signals #179: A handful of trades for 2025

Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets. In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for...

Steno Research

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