Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar</li><li>Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets</li><li>Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollarDeepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity marketsDespite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility aheadThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.</li><li>Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.</li><li>I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Let’s start with DeepSeek.</li><li>The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.</li><li>With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.</li></ul>

Let’s start with DeepSeek.The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.</li><li>Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.</li><li>The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Traders Pare USD Longs

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul><li>Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.</li><li>They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.</li><li>Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

Concerns about the future of US equity exceptionalism and its potential impact on the global market, including discussions on the Deepseq model and...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro. Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go...

Steno Research

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Let’s start with DeepSeek. The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted. With barriers to entry for AI...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Traders Pare USD Longs

CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December

Scotiabank

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

Mark Connors, Christopher Rose, and Bill discuss market sell-offs, portfolio design, stablecoins, Bitcoin concentration, AI research tools, and...

William Mann

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