Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.</li><li>CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.</li><li>A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.</li></ul>

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in Asia</li><li>US real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed's dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yields</li><li>Dollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in AsiaUS real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed's dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yieldsDollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine's Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management</li><li>Kevin's background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets</li><li>Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine's Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset ManagementKevin's background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assetsDiscussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentimentThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Kevin Jiang - The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.</li><li>Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).</li><li>Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Eurodollar trading up towards highest level since late January, European equities surging</li><li>Ongoing threat of US tariffs and sticky inflation data partially offsetting positivity</li><li>Discussion with economists on implications of potential peace deal, tariffs, and upcoming UK data in Europe and UK.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Eurodollar trading up towards highest level since late January, European equities surgingOngoing threat of US tariffs and sticky inflation data partially offsetting positivityDiscussion with economists on implications of potential peace deal, tariffs, and upcoming UK data in Europe and UK.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a...

Steno Research

Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar

Investors are optimistic about European peace, driving up continental asset prices and boosting equities, with Chinese tech stocks outpacing the...

At Any Rate

Kevin Jiang - The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

On the Valentine's Day episode of Barbarians podcast, Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management, discusses digital assets and their...

William Mann

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with...

Scotiabank

The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance?

Eurodollar trading and European equities surging despite threat of US tariffs, President Trump's announcement, central bank decisions previewed,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

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