External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.</li><li>Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.</li><li>That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Term premium in US macro picture and interest rates has fallen significantly over the past month</li><li>Treasury Secretary's comments indicating no changes in coupon auction sizes or debt profile have impacted term premium</li><li>Recent concerns about weakening growth have led to market pricing in more Fed rate cuts, despite strong labor market and potential upside risks to inflation forecast</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Term premium in US macro picture and interest rates has fallen significantly over the past monthTreasury Secretary's comments indicating no changes in coupon auction sizes or debt profile have impacted term premiumRecent concerns about weakening growth have led to market pricing in more Fed rate cuts, despite strong labor market and potential upside risks to inflation forecastThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.</li>
<li>I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.</li>
<li>As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.</li>
</ul>


Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.


Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul><li>Episode nine of the Barbarians podcast covers updates on Trump's presidency and economic investing outlooks</li><li>Discussion on the impact of demographics on GDP growth and the innovation in sports like hockey</li><li>Analysis of returns in relation to policy changes and the rise in gold prices, with a reference to a scene from Animal House for perspective.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode nine of the Barbarians podcast covers updates on Trump's presidency and economic investing outlooksDiscussion on the impact of demographics on GDP growth and the innovation in sports like hockeyAnalysis of returns in relation to policy changes and the rise in gold prices, with a reference to a scene from Animal House for perspective.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Markets, Debt, and Gold: A Month Into Trump’s Presidency | The New Barbarians #009

<ul><li>Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.</li><li>Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.</li><li>Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

Combined net USD long positioning is down by USD16.5bn in the latest week’s data to USD21bn, a third of the bullish net position seen just seven...

Scotiabank

Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes

Overall, the decline in term premium and narrowing gap in 10 year yields, combined with concerns about weakening growth and uncertainty about the...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties. I don’t feel in a position to judge...

Steno Research

Markets, Debt, and Gold: A Month Into Trump’s Presidency | The New Barbarians #009

Episode nine of Barbarians discusses the first 30 days of Trump's presidency, economic investing outlooks, the impact of the aging boomer...

William Mann

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.

Scotiabank

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