Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.</li>
<li>The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime</li>
<li>FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.</li>
</ul>


The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.
The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime
FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.


Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlook</li><li>Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience</li><li>Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlookBullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilienceDollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. September 25th, 2025 to October 24th, 2025, the EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish trend.</li><li>In the beginning, it showed overall a downward slope, until October 14th where the pair indicated an upward trend.</li><li>After that, it fluctuated sideways between MA-10 and MA-20. By the end of the period the price it was slightly lower than the level of September 25th.</li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. September 25th, 2025 to October 24th, 2025, the EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish trend.In the beginning, it showed overall a downward slope, until October 14th where the pair indicated an upward trend.After that, it fluctuated sideways between MA-10 and MA-20. By the end of the period the price it was slightly lower than the level of September 25th.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD October 24, 2025

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The Dutch pension transition is approaching the first of two peaks with almost half the sector transitioning 1 January.</li><li>Steepeners, ASW longs and basis spread wideners remain the preferred trades into the transition.</li><li>The Dutch pension reform has been long underway. Transition expectations have guided trade ideas throughout the year in EUR rates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Dutch pension transition is approaching the first of two peaks with almost half the sector transitioning 1 January.Steepeners, ASW longs and basis spread wideners remain the preferred trades into the transition.The Dutch pension reform has been long underway. Transition expectations have guided trade ideas throughout the year in EUR rates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.</li>
<li>Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.</li>
<li>Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.
Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.
Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Post-mortem on two short-dollar trades through the oil shock: a EUR/USD seagull salvaged at −85% and a flat USD/INR short. What paid, which exit...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

Global team predicts euro dollar to rise to 116-118 in the near term, with a narrower dollar weakening compared to 2025, while offering efficient...

At Any Rate

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD October 24, 2025

During the period under consideration, i.e. September 25th, 2025 to October 24th, 2025, the EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish trend.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

EUR rates: Dutch trades

The Dutch pension reform has been long underway. Transition expectations have guided trade ideas throughout the year in EUR rates.

Nordea

Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

Overall, uncertainty surrounding US dynamics, the government shutdown, trade tensions, and regional bank issues are impacting the dollar and global...

At Any Rate

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