Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand</li>
<li>Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year </li>
<li>Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV - one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  </li>
</ul>



Japan Airlines (9201 JP) (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand
Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year 
Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV - one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  


Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4591:1" rel="noopener">China Airlines (2610 TT)</a> will deliver record profit in 2023 on strong passenger and rising cargo rates</li>
<li>Beyond 2023, hard to forecast due to high exposure (~30%) to volatile cargo, and it lacks brand recognition and customer loyalty evidenced by its weaker yields to local rival   </li>
<li>Target price of TWD23 based on 1.71x FY2024 P/BV ratio - one SD above mean. Limited 6% UPSIDE, with 3,9% dividend yield. Prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20645:1" rel="noopener">Eva Airways (2618 TT)</a> </li>
</ul>



China Airlines (2610 TT) will deliver record profit in 2023 on strong passenger and rising cargo rates
Beyond 2023, hard to forecast due to high exposure (~30%) to volatile cargo, and it lacks brand recognition and customer loyalty evidenced by its weaker yields to local rival   
Target price of TWD23 based on 1.71x FY2024 P/BV ratio - one SD above mean. Limited 6% UPSIDE, with 3,9% dividend yield. Prefer Eva Airways (2618 TT) 


China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 1st which has an aggregated holding worth USD684.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,077mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Umc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 1st which has an aggregated holding worth USD684.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,077mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Umc.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 1st): TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 20 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.8% and a one-way trade of US$1.37bn.</li>
<li>There are 16 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1-day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 20 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.8% and a one-way trade of US$1.37bn.
There are 16 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1-day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade

Taiwan

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

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Eva Airways (2618 TT)

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

Mohshin Aziz

China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

China Airlines will deliver record earnings in 2023 but will struggle thereafter due to a weaker product portfolio against its rivals and high...

Mohshin Aziz

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 1st): TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and we highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Umc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade

There should be 6 adds, 5 deletes and capping changes leading to 1-way turnover of 17.8% and 1-way trade of US$1.37bn. 16 stocks could have over 3x...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

​Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

Mohshin Aziz

China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

​China Airlines will deliver record earnings in 2023 but will struggle thereafter due to a weaker product portfolio against its rivals and high...

Mohshin Aziz

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 1st): TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and we highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Umc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade

There should be 6 adds, 5 deletes and capping changes leading to 1-way turnover of 17.8% and 1-way trade of US$1.37bn. 16 stocks could have over 3x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

China Airlines will deliver record earnings in 2023 but will struggle thereafter due to a weaker product portfolio against its rivals and high...

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade