Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cemex-holdings-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22700:1" rel="noopener">Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM)</a> low-balled MTO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week: Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM) low-balled MTO.
Key updates took place on: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), MPHB Capital (MPHB MK), and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.</li>
<li>The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.</li>
<li>If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. </li>
</ul>


This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.
The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.
If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

<ul>
<li>In late May, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced it would sell its 37% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> . The market dropped. But that was the opportunity.</li>
<li>On 30 May, I said "Buy the deal, buy in the market. It's cheap and vulnerable." It's up 21.5% since (the day after). Peers are down 15-20%. </li>
<li>The company completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There's LOTS of cash left. </li>
</ul>


In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) . The market dropped. But that was the opportunity.
On 30 May, I said "Buy the deal, buy in the market. It's cheap and vulnerable." It's up 21.5% since (the day after). Peers are down 15-20%. 
The company completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There's LOTS of cash left. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

<ul>
<li>Buy dips on the possibility that 3DIP would not agree to Bain. Otherwise, at ¥9,000 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft (9749 JP)</a> is a buy, and at ¥9,500, it's probably a sell near-term.</li>
<li>Drilling down into its balance sheet uncovers additional value for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>; but not enough to move the needle</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There's LOTS of cash left.</li>
</ul>


Buy dips on the possibility that 3DIP would not agree to Bain. Otherwise, at ¥9,000 Fuji Soft (9749 JP) is a buy, and at ¥9,500, it's probably a sell near-term.
Drilling down into its balance sheet uncovers additional value for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP); but not enough to move the needle

Exedy Corp (7278 JP) completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There's LOTS of cash left.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fuji Soft, Jardine Matheson, Exedy, Henderson

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iriso-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2801:1" rel="noopener">Iriso Electronics (6908 JP)</a>. The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in Iriso Electronics (6908 JP). The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.
Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.


Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Japan

EXEDY Corporation manufactures drivetrain products for automobiles, industrial vehicles, and construction machinery.  The Company's products include manual clutches, torque converters, power shift transmissions, and hydraulic clutches. Exedy has its subsidiaries in South Korea, Australia, the US and the UK.

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Exedy Corp (7278 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Muirakami-san continues to accumulate Exedy. Now at 23.5%. Remaining overhang from the 36+% offering is 2%. Earnings are in a week. Excess capital...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Murakami-san is up to 18% in Exedy. But that is 20.9% of voting rights. And that is at a price higher than pre-offering announcement. Since he...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fuji Soft, Jardine Matheson, Exedy, Henderson

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as...

Arun George

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