Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.</li>
<li>DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.</li>
<li>Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. </li>
</ul>


Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 


The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.</li><li>Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.</li><li>Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,327/1,320 points and the resistance at 1,345/1,350 points.</li><li>In the short term, a breakout signal has emerged from the 1,334-1,364 point range in a downward direction, increasing the likelihood of a further decline toward 1,320/1,300 points, where the index may seek a bottom out signal.</li><li>The investment strategy remains selling on rallies and waiting to buy at support levels until a new breakout signal emerges.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,327/1,320 points and the resistance at 1,345/1,350 points.In the short term, a breakout signal has emerged from the 1,334-1,364 point range in a downward direction, increasing the likelihood of a further decline toward 1,320/1,300 points, where the index may seek a bottom out signal.The investment strategy remains selling on rallies and waiting to buy at support levels until a new breakout signal emerges.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,340/1,334 points and the resistance at 1,350/1,354 points.</li><li>The recommended investment strategy remains selling on rallies and buying at support levels until a new breakout signal emerges.</li><li>The market expects the ECB to continue cutting interest rates for the fifth consecutive time by another 25 bps, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.75% from 3.0% and the marginal lending rate to 3.15% from 3.4%.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,340/1,334 points and the resistance at 1,350/1,354 points.The recommended investment strategy remains selling on rallies and buying at support levels until a new breakout signal emerges.The market expects the ECB to continue cutting interest rates for the fifth consecutive time by another 25 bps, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.75% from 3.0% and the marginal lending rate to 3.15% from 3.4%.

4Q24 GDP for the EU & US and FOMC & ECB Meetings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has surged to the top of AI-related downloads on both domestic and overseas iOS App Stores over the weekend, showcasing its super-efficient open-source model (~10k A100) running on a cost-effective compute infrastructure. </li><li>This milestone has immediately ignited intense debate around the trade-offs between big and small models, open vs. closed-source approaches, and cost-efficient vs. premium infrastructure.</li><li>The impact of DeepSeek’s emergence has also sent shockwaves across global markets. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has surged to the top of AI-related downloads on both domestic and overseas iOS App Stores over the weekend, showcasing its super-efficient open-source model (~10k A100) running on a cost-effective compute infrastructure. This milestone has immediately ignited intense debate around the trade-offs between big and small models, open vs. closed-source approaches, and cost-efficient vs. premium infrastructure.The impact of DeepSeek’s emergence has also sent shockwaves across global markets. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: Views on DeepSeek

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meta (META US)

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Microsoft's financial numbers remained steady with a focus on AI investment and potential growth in other areas of the business.

The Circuit

Strategic Daily Picks

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,327/1,320 points and the resistance at 1,345/1,350 points. In the short...

Krungthai XSpring

4Q24 GDP for the EU & US and FOMC & ECB Meetings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,340/1,334 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: Views on DeepSeek

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has surged to the top of AI-related downloads on both domestic and overseas iOS App Stores over the weekend, showcasing...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)