Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE:Toshiba, Wilmar, Vedanta, Haier, Softbank, Genting, 51job, Appraisal Rights

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> has completed its buyout of Familymart (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy's</a> insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/itochu-gets-the-famima-hunnypot-and-now-things-get-funky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/itochu-haz-opinionz-about-familymart" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-needs-more-cowbell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-amended-familymart-document-is-a-must-read-for-investor-stewards" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>). Itochu has clearly taken full advantage of a depressed Familymart share price and an opportunity for the trading house to begin more adventurous diversification of the convenience store business.</p>
<p>This will include moving into more types of food format, including its nascent hybrid store collaborations with supermarkets and drugstores and an upcoming push into e-commerce, but will also mean more integration with Itochu's food wholesale business – which when combined is bigger than that of its arch rival, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP).</a></p>
<p>Mitsubishi and Itochu have been playing catch-up with each other for the last two decades in a race to build Japan's first integrated food wholesale-retail businesses.</p>
<p>Now that Itochu has succeeded in its bid, the question remains whether Mitsubishi will now look to consolidate its own food retail assets like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP).</a></p>

Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has completed its buyout of Familymart (see Travis Lundy's insights here, here, here and here). Itochu has clearly taken full advantage of a depressed Familymart share price and an opportunity for the trading house to begin more adventurous diversification of the convenience store business.
This will include moving into more types of food format, including its nascent hybrid store collaborations with supermarkets and drugstores and an upcoming push into e-commerce, but will also mean more integration with Itochu's food wholesale business – which when combined is bigger than that of its arch rival, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP).
Mitsubishi and Itochu have been playing catch-up with each other for the last two decades in a race to build Japan's first integrated food wholesale-retail businesses.
Now that Itochu has succeeded in its bid, the question remains whether Mitsubishi will now look to consolidate its own food retail assets like Lawson Inc (2651 JP) and Life Corp (8194 JP).

Familymart: What's Next? And Will Mitsubishi React?

Travis Lundy

<p>The life of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> as a listed entity with a listed future is now entering its Zombie Twilight. The Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> to buy out minorities has ended and we now move on to the next stage. </p><p>Today the results of the Tender Offer for LINE were <a href="https://d.line-scdn.net/stf/linecorp/en/ir/all/LINE_20200916_EN_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> and the Offerors managed to acquire a sum total of 31,234,670 shares leaving about 25,000,000 shares left over un-tendered (plus options and converts un-converted). That is 25,000,000 million shares worth of zombie shareholders who will roam the markets until the shares' final retirement after the EGM. </p><p>That is $1.25bn+ worth of zombies at the Tender Offer Price. </p><p>The now-zombies defended their boundary, keeping the shares above the ¥5380 Tender Offer Price line from late June until the day before the Tender Offer went ex-.</p><p> </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/330/original/Screenshot%202020-09-16%20at%204.03.18%20PM.png?1600243413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159330"></figure><p></p><p>The period between now and the delisting of LINE could be 4-5 months. It could take 5-6 months to get one's money, unless one is going after appraisal rights. Then it will take a little longer, unless it takes a lot longer. </p><p>This situation is different from the post-Tender trading situation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> and one should not expect the squeeze which happened there. </p><div>
<hr>
<p>Previous insights related to this situation and the names involved are listed below.</p>
</div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h2>Relevant Insights</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 97px;"><strong>Author</strong></td>
<td style="width: 463px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h3>About Cashless Payments</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">13 Mar 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/loyalty-points-in-japan-more-loyalty-more-points-and-the-conduit-to-cashless-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28547" rel="noopener">Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">2 Apr 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato, CFA</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-why-mercari-is-likely-to-be-a-winner-in-the-cashless-wars" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28946" rel="noopener">Mercari: Why Mercari Is Likely to Be a Winner in the Cashless Wars</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">28 Jun 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paying-with-paypay-a-deep-dive-into-yahoo-japan-s-mobile-payment-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30750" rel="noopener">Paying with PayPay: A Deep Dive into Yahoo! Japan’s Mobile Payment Business</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">6 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lawson-and-kddi-join-forces-in-cashless-payments-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35596" rel="noopener">Lawson and KDDI Join Forces in Cashless Payments War</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">24 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-merpay-acquisition-of-origami-pay-continues-cashless-consolidation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36051" rel="noopener">Mercari – Merpay Acquisition of Origami Pay Continues Cashless Consolidation</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">15 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-payment-wars-ntt-docomo-and-merpay-origami-to-attempt-catch-up-with-paypay-and-rakuten" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36609" rel="noopener">Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">20 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/some-resistance-to-cashless-payments-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37629" rel="noopener">Some Resistance to Cashless Payments in Japan</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">28 Apr 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-holdings-and-yamato-create-fulfilment-service-for-all-to-rival-rakuten-and-amazon" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38797" rel="noopener">Z Holdings and Yamato Create Fulfilment Service for All to Rival Rakuten and Amazon</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">29 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-holdings-alt-data-paypay-mall-and-paypay-flea-market-continue-to-disappoint" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41671" rel="noopener">Z Holdings [Alt Data]: PayPay Mall and PayPay Flea Market Continue to Disappoint</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h3>About This Deal</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">14 Nov 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-and-line-sitting-in-a-tree-m-e-r-g-i-n-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34463" rel="noopener">Z and LINE, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N... G...?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">18 Nov 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/line-and-z-sitting-in-a-tree-m-e-r-g-i-n-g-and-a-tender-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34560" rel="noopener">LINE and Z, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N.G! And a Tender Offer!</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">26 Dec 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-deal-for-line-a-lot-like-the-old-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEW Deal for LINE (A Lot Like the Old Deal)</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">6 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/market-is-pricing-a-line-bump-should-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40976" rel="noopener">Market Is Pricing a LINE Bump - Should It?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">22 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-line-bump-the-other-argument-against" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41419" rel="noopener">A LINE Bump - The Other Argument Against</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">29 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/line-3938-this-is-not-the-kitchen-sink-you-are-looking-for" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41674" rel="noopener">LINE (3938) - This Is Not the Kitchen Sink You Are Looking For</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">3 August 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-end-of-the-line-3938" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41828" rel="noopener">The End of the LINE (3938)</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><p><em>In addition to the above insights, Michael Causton's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-zozo-revival-a-new-private-brand-of-many-names-category-expansion-merchants-return" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41520" rel="noopener">The Zozo Revival: A New Private Brand of Many Names, Category Expansion, Merchants Return</a> is worth a read to know more about Z Holdings going forward and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato, CFA</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zozo-nice-results-but-it-s-just-a-covid-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41718" rel="noopener">Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump</a> takes the view that results announced last week were less impressive than the headline numbers.</em></p></div>

The life of LINE Corp (3938 JP) as a listed entity with a listed future is now entering its Zombie Twilight. The Tender Offer by Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Naver Corp (035420 KS) to buy out minorities has ended and we now move on to the next stage. Today the results of the Tender Offer for LINE were announced and the Offerors managed to acquire a sum total of 31,234,670 shares leaving about 25,000,000 shares left over un-tendered (plus options and converts un-converted). That is 25,000,000 million shares worth of zombie shareholders who will roam the markets until the shares' final retirement after the EGM. That is $1.25bn+ worth of zombies at the Tender Offer Price. The now-zombies defended their boundary, keeping the shares above the ¥5380 Tender Offer Price line from late June until the day before the Tender Offer went ex-. The period between now and the delisting of LINE could be 4-5 months. It could take 5-6 months to get one's money, unless one is going after appraisal rights. Then it will take a little longer, unless it takes a lot longer. This situation is different from the post-Tender trading situation of FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) and one should not expect the squeeze which happened there. 

Previous insights related to this situation and the names involved are listed below.

Relevant Insights

Date
Author
Title

About Cashless Payments

13 Mar 2019

Michael Causton 

Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments 


2 Apr 2019

Mio Kato, CFA 

Mercari: Why Mercari Is Likely to Be a Winner in the Cashless Wars 


28 Jun 2019

Supun Walpola 

Paying with PayPay: A Deep Dive into Yahoo! Japan’s Mobile Payment Business 


6 Jan 2020

Michael Causton 

Lawson and KDDI Join Forces in Cashless Payments War 


24 Jan 2020

Michael Causton 

Mercari – Merpay Acquisition of Origami Pay Continues Cashless Consolidation 


15 Feb 2020

Michael Causton 

Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten 


20 Mar 2020

Michael Causton 

Some Resistance to Cashless Payments in Japan 


28 Apr 2020

Michael Causton 

Z Holdings and Yamato Create Fulfilment Service for All to Rival Rakuten and Amazon 


29 Jul 2020

Supun Walpola 

Z Holdings [Alt Data]: PayPay Mall and PayPay Flea Market Continue to Disappoint 


About This Deal

14 Nov 2019
Travis Lundy

Z and LINE, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N... G...? 


18 Nov 2019
Travis Lundy

LINE and Z, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N.G! And a Tender Offer! 


26 Dec 2019
Travis Lundy
NEW Deal for LINE (A Lot Like the Old Deal)


6 July 2020
Travis Lundy

Market Is Pricing a LINE Bump - Should It? 


22 July 2020
Travis Lundy

A LINE Bump - The Other Argument Against 


29 July 2020
Travis Lundy

LINE (3938) - This Is Not the Kitchen Sink You Are Looking For 


3 August 2020
Travis Lundy

The End of the LINE (3938) 

In addition to the above insights, Michael Causton's The Zozo Revival: A New Private Brand of Many Names, Category Expansion, Merchants Return is worth a read to know more about Z Holdings going forward and Mio Kato, CFA's Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump takes the view that results announced last week were less impressive than the headline numbers.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Softbank, Cardinal Resources, Sembcorp, Intouch, SingTel, 58.Com

<p>Today after the close, and a few days earlier than expected, the Nikkei's “Index Business Office" which administers the Nikkei 225 Average and the other indices announced the Annual Review of the Nikkei 225 Average has resulted in one deletion, and one replacement. </p>
<p>The stock getting deleted is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> and the stock being added is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>. Softbank Corp is getting added with a Deemed Par Value of 50 yen per share as of the close of 30 September. </p>
<p>There will be a few other <em>technical</em> changes at the end of September to do with a few stock splits and reverse stock splits but they will have no effect on the index. </p>
<p>I have been surprised by the lack of aggressive shorting on Nippon Kayaku as it was the odds-on favorite to get the boot. The addition of Softbank Corp will surprise a few people but it may indicate an ongoing trend at the Nikkei to favor a certain kind of rebalance. </p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

Today after the close, and a few days earlier than expected, the Nikkei's “Index Business Office" which administers the Nikkei 225 Average and the other indices announced the Annual Review of the Nikkei 225 Average has resulted in one deletion, and one replacement. 
The stock getting deleted is Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) and the stock being added is Softbank Corp (9434 JP). Softbank Corp is getting added with a Deemed Par Value of 50 yen per share as of the close of 30 September. 
There will be a few other technical changes at the end of September to do with a few stock splits and reverse stock splits but they will have no effect on the index. 
I have been surprised by the lack of aggressive shorting on Nippon Kayaku as it was the odds-on favorite to get the boot. The addition of Softbank Corp will surprise a few people but it may indicate an ongoing trend at the Nikkei to favor a certain kind of rebalance. 
More below the fold.

The 2020 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nippon Kayaku OUT and Softbank Corp IN

Japan

FamilyMart Co., Ltd. operates convenience store chains. The Company provides rice balls, hot snacks, stews, beverages, and other products. FamilyMart conducts businesses in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and other countries and regions.

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FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE:Toshiba, Wilmar, Vedanta, Haier, Softbank, Genting, 51job, Appraisal Rights

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Familymart: What's Next? And Will Mitsubishi React?

Itochu initiated a buyout for an additional 10% of Familymart shares over the summer. The move is widely seen as Itochu taking full advantage of a...

Michael Causton

LINE: The Zombie Twilight Begins

LINE

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Softbank, Cardinal Resources, Sembcorp, Intouch, SingTel, 58.Com

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

The 2020 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nippon Kayaku OUT and Softbank Corp IN

Today after the close, and a few days earlier than expected, the Nikkei's “Index Business Office" which administers the Nikkei 225 Average and the...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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