Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement - Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)</li><li>Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)</li><li>Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.</li></ul>

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake to below 50%. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement - Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake to below 50%. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) Stock performance is...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

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