Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/China%20Mineral%20Resources%20Group%20Co.,%20Ltd./14715" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Minerals Resources Group's </a>restrictions on the purchase of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> have led to restocking from alternative sources, as seen in port numbers. </li>
<li>Inventory at the ports is now over 47 days, with Jan-Feb import volumes at 210 million tons, up 10% YoY according to China Customs Data. </li>
<li>We see a widening of the 65-62 spread as higher-grade products may be preferred to preserve blast furnace efficiency.  </li>
</ul>



China Minerals Resources Group's restrictions on the purchase of BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) have led to restocking from alternative sources, as seen in port numbers. 
Inventory at the ports is now over 47 days, with Jan-Feb import volumes at 210 million tons, up 10% YoY according to China Customs Data. 
We see a widening of the 65-62 spread as higher-grade products may be preferred to preserve blast furnace efficiency.  


Iron Ore: All Eyes On CMRG Negotiation, China Imports And Restocking Strong: Negative Long-Term

<ul>
<li>January TSF rose 2%, slightly above estimates, but offered limited reassurance that credit expansion will materially boost liquidity or stimulate China’s economy.</li>
<li>Port inventories are at over 45 days of China's iron ore requirements (well above average at 35 days), signalling a bearish environment if a prolonged destock persists.</li>
<li>Iron ore majors with copper pivots like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> outperform, or pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> for high growth.</li>
</ul>


January TSF rose 2%, slightly above estimates, but offered limited reassurance that credit expansion will materially boost liquidity or stimulate China’s economy.
Port inventories are at over 45 days of China's iron ore requirements (well above average at 35 days), signalling a bearish environment if a prolonged destock persists.
Iron ore majors with copper pivots like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) outperform, or pure plays like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for high growth.


Iron Ore Price Below 100 USD/Ton: Subdued By High Port Inventories And Tepid China Data

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we review CATL's H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou's expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan's consumer sector.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL's H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou's expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan's consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

<ul>
<li>We analyse <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> after improvements in its operations in Q2FY26. The company destocked 477k tons and is down to 1.7 million tons to further reduce the stockpile.</li>
<li>The company also saw an improvement in its realized iron ore price (to 128 CAD/ton or 19% YoY) as it reduced its contractual arrangements for material. </li>
<li>Despite the improvement in operational performance, which will drive profitability up 52% YoY, the stock trades at 11.7x FY26 PE and is fairly valued. We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> </li>
</ul>


We analyse Champion Iron (CIA AU) after improvements in its operations in Q2FY26. The company destocked 477k tons and is down to 1.7 million tons to further reduce the stockpile.
The company also saw an improvement in its realized iron ore price (to 128 CAD/ton or 19% YoY) as it reduced its contractual arrangements for material. 
Despite the improvement in operational performance, which will drive profitability up 52% YoY, the stock trades at 11.7x FY26 PE and is fairly valued. We prefer Fenix Resources (FEX AU) 


Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU): Fairly Valued Despite Operational Improvements

<ul>
<li>We are now set for a <a href="https://www.mining.com/explaining-the-iron-ore-grade-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts</a>, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  </li>
<li>Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. </li>
<li>We continue to advocate strongly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. Read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a> for a detailed outline of our thesis. </li>
</ul>


We are now set for a decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  
Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. 
We continue to advocate strongly for Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again for a detailed outline of our thesis. 


Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore: All Eyes On CMRG Negotiation, China Imports And Restocking Strong: Negative Long-Term

With iron ore restocking continuing and Chinese inventories building, there is reason to be slightly bearish on iron ore. We highlight the current...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Price Below 100 USD/Ton: Subdued By High Port Inventories And Tepid China Data

Iron ore prices have dipped below 100 USD/ton owing to massive stockpiling at Chinese ports and tepid lending data. We highlight the outperformers...

Sameer Taneja

Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

This Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...

Pranav Rao

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU): Fairly Valued Despite Operational Improvements

Champion Iron (CIA CN) has seen a dramatic turnaround in its operations. We discuss its prospects, Q2 results, and its valuation and contrast it...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

With Iron ore prices at 105 USD/ton and a short-term decline of 5-10 USD/ton on the cards, the only positive way to play the sector is Fenix...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore: All Eyes On CMRG Negotiation, China Imports And Restocking Strong: Negative Long-Term

With iron ore restocking continuing and Chinese inventories building, there is reason to be slightly bearish on iron ore. We highlight the current...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Price Below 100 USD/Ton: Subdued By High Port Inventories And Tepid China Data

Iron ore prices have dipped below 100 USD/ton owing to massive stockpiling at Chinese ports and tepid lending data. We highlight the outperformers...

Sameer Taneja

Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

This ​Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...

Pranav Rao

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU): Fairly Valued Despite Operational Improvements

Champion Iron (CIA CN) has seen a dramatic turnaround in its operations. We discuss its prospects, Q2 results, and its valuation and contrast it...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

With Iron ore prices at 105 USD/ton and a short-term decline of 5-10 USD/ton on the cards, the only positive way to play the sector is Fenix...

Sameer Taneja

This Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...