Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.</li>
<li>With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. The company recently presented at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1r6Dq8xXDo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 


Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.</li>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.


Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. </li>
<li>The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. </li>
<li>At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. 
At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  </li>
<li>With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. </li>
<li>With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  
With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. 
With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.


Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

<ul>
<li>Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KUxqrU1aU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment case</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  </li>
<li>The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.</li>
<li>The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coziron-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17698:1" rel="noopener">Coziron Resources (CZR AU)</a>, which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. </li>
</ul>


Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Iron ore has been rangebound at $95-$100/ton since “Liberation Day.” Could China's stimulus boost demand, especially since China accounts for over...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Encouraging lending in China, a rebound in steel production, and reduced trade tensions provide a basis for iron ore prices to increase from 98 USD...

Sameer Taneja